Anti-Missile Summit in Deauville

It became known yesterday that four senators had sent a letter to the Pentagon. They demanded details of possible deployment of a U.S. missile defense radar system “in either Georgia or Armenia.” A senior representative of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency told the senators that deployment of the system in these countries “would have significant advantages for the missile defense of the United States.”

New START

The authors of the letter — addressed to Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy James Miller — are influential legislators, Senators Jon Kyl, Mark Kirk, John Barrasso and Jim DeMint. Kyl was in the vanguard of the Republicans who laid down conditions for the Obama administration during the Senate’s ratification of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). In his amendment of the Senate resolution to approve New START, Kyl suggested not including targets for missile defense testing in the ceiling for deployed and non-deployed ICBM [Intercontinental Ballistic Missile] and SLBM [Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile]. Then he lamented: “Regardless of whatever President Obama’s agreements with the Russians or anyone else, we dare not make any corrections, because otherwise you’ll have to hold new negotiations.”*

At this time, as reported by AFP, which had examined the letter, Kyl and his colleagues asked the Pentagon to provide them with “any draft materials [they] are discussing with the Russians,” including a draft Missile Defense Cooperation Agreement (MDCA) and Defense Technology Cooperation Agreement (DTCA). According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, within the framework of the U.S.-Russia Presidential Commission, the Ryabkov-Tauscher Working Group is working on these documents. However, so far the parties, apparently, have not agreed to a joint release.

References to the opinion of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in 2010 that “individual Russian entities continue to provide assistance to Iran’s ballistic missile programs,” are probably intended to emphasize that the senators do not trust Moscow and worry “about the security of sensitive U.S. data and systems in any final agreement on cooperating with Moscow.”

Also interesting is their reference to the statement by a top U.S. Missile Defense Agency official that deployment of radar “in either Georgia or Armenia would have significant advantages for the missile defense of the United States.” Senators have requested more information on this issue from the Pentagon.

According to the former Chief of Staff of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, Colonel General Viktor Esin, the closer the radar to Iran, the sooner one could get information about the launch of Iranian missiles, and the higher the effectiveness of the missile defense system being created. The Georgians had previously stated that they were willing to consider the placement of such a radar. Apparently, they will demand armed protection of Georgia in return. “As far as I know, Americans understand that it would cause extremely negative reaction by the Russian Federation, and are now trying to persuade the Turks to deploy radar, especially because Turkey is a NATO member. Perhaps the radar would be more effective if it is located in Turkey, because of greater proximity to Iran,” the expert said. In his opinion, deployment of the radar in Armenia, which is a member of the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization], is unlikely.

“Politically, deployment of radar in Georgia would be a slight. But from the military-technical point of view, it would not cause us any damage. However, if the United States, along with radar, deployed the Standard system with a prospective interception range of 1,000 km, we would protest,” said the source. Incidentally, even the existing Standard systems with a range of 300 km could pose a threat to Russian military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, since they are able to shoot down planes.

It is not entirely known yet how the missile defense system will develop. Therefore, Moscow’s demands (voiced on Monday by the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, and earlier by Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov) for a legal guarantee that the missile defense system not be directed against Russia seem to be fair. “Washington says that it is unable to provide such a legal guarantee because it will not receive congressional approval. In addition, it is written in the American Ballistic Missile Defense Review that no country can impose restrictions on the U.S. deploying missile defense systems,” Viktor Esin explains.

Of course, one should not take the Americans’ word for it. But, according to experts, the system that the U.S. is going to deploy in Europe will not have a negative effect on Russian potential for nuclear deterrence until 2020. At the same time, minimum cooperation with the U.S. allows hope that Moscow will have a lever ensuring that Americans do not create unexpected serious complications for us in the future. Otherwise, the U.S. may act at its discretion.

Rogozin expressed the opinion that a compromise be reached. According to him, Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama will discuss the missile defense situation at the G-8 summit in Deauville at the end of May. In order to achieve success, Russian and American leaders need to decide on cooperative principles and an interactive framework in the area of missile defense. Without this, negotiations will stall. However, according to Viktor Esin, it is unlikely that President Obama would dare to sign a joint agreement on missile defense before the elections. Most probably, although negotiations will continue on lower levels, real progress is not possible until President Obama’s re-election.