Has the Time Come to Withdraw?

The two largest blocs in the Iraqi parliament are linking their positions on the issues of: whether the American troops should withdraw or remain, how ready the Iraqi security forces are to maintain the stability of the country and to protect its borders from foreign incursions, while protecting the political process.

Thus far, the Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bloc (Dawlat Al-Qanoon) has not finalized its position on withdrawal, which means that the announcement of positions and their timing are not linked solely to how ready the security forces are. Political considerations are taking precedence over security considerations. As for the Iraqi people, they still cannot be assured of security mechanisms capable of protecting them, because in the last few months, murder rates have increased bypassing officials in various political and security positions.

There have also been repeated instances of prisoners escaping with collusion from elements within the security mechanism. The most recent of these was when 12 of the most dangerous al-Qaida members escaped from one of the prisons in Basra last May, and a number of other instances of dangerous prisoners escaping from prisons in Al-Taji and Badush before that. All this data points to a major defect in the performance and readiness of the security forces which requires desire, time and effort to sort out at a time when disputes are flaring up between the participants in the political process, from time to time coming together to form a crisis which threatens the country.

The Iraqis have no idea what the position of the two biggest blocs is concerning whether the American forces should remain or withdraw. The Sadrists, on the other hand, finalized their position early and were not content to simply announce their rejection of the idea of these forces remaining, but also threatened action against them and anyone who supports them. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Alliance gave indications supporting the idea of at least part of the American force remaining. A great deal of data confirmed by Wa’il Abd al Latif, a member of the Iraqi Chamber of Representatives, as was broadcast by the channel Al-Hurra Iraq, indicates that positions of the political blocs in Iraq are influenced by the surrounding foreign countries, especially Iraq’s neighbor states.

Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Syria all have an influence, as do smaller states such as Kuwait, Jordan and the Emirates, on the domestic decisions of Iraq. This means that the issue of the American troops withdrawing from or remaining in Iraq, whilst it may be a domestic affair, effects and is affected by the surrounding local area. As with all substantial domestic affairs, the issue of the withdrawal or extended stay of the American forces has become a political tool used by one side against another. Speculations predict that a split is likely to occur between the Liberal bloc and Dawlat Al-Qanoon following any decision the latter may take which supports the American forces remaining; this threatens to dissolve the national alliance on the basis of which the government was formed.

This is the main issue which has led to Dawlat Al-Qanoon and its president delaying the announcement of their position on whether the American troops should stay or withdraw. Many observers claim that the population sectors that elected the majority of the members of the Iraqi government will come to understand any decision its leaders take. However, controversy will flare up in the streets where a large sector of the population has mobilized to reject the idea of American forces remaining. This means that an unorganized majority will come out in support of any decision the government may take in this regard, and there do not appear to be any fears of the country being dominated by the forces, a large part of which withdrew last year. In any case, a careful reading of the Iraqi news and that of the surrounding area indicates that the Iraqi politicians will soon be heading towards an agreement on the American forces staying. The time has not yet come for them to say to the Americans: “We don’t need you!”