Sarah Palin and the Seven Dwarfs

American political life rarely offers boredom. After the business magnate and showman Donald Trump and the former politician and current talk show host Mike Huckabee decided not to run for the presidency, the American media worried that the presidential campaign may turn out pretty bland. But here comes former Alaska governor and current reality star Sarah Palin attacking the stage. Riding on a bike, the former vice presidential candidate immediately grabbed a spot on the front pages and angered the rest of the candidates who have to spend millions and play friends with TV producers to show up for a couple of seconds on the screen. Despite the colorful personalities, though, the Republican camp fails to offer a strong nomination that will be a serious challenge for Barack Obama. They are running out of time to appoint a candidate who will have enough time to raise support and start on a strong note.

Although there is plenty of time before the first round of the presidential primaries in 2012, according to the U.S. political calendar, the campaign is severely behind schedule. In 2007, at this stage of the race, the major runners were crystal clear, and they were already raising donations and working on their meeting schedules.

Besides, not long ago, the Republican wannabe-president team looked like a public bus in rush hour, packed with travelers willing to attack the White House. Then, all of a sudden the seats stood empty. Some promising names, like Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, couldn’t even hide how much they were in a hurry to get out of the bus as quickly as possible. The Republican Party is not overwhelmed with too many personnel showing White House ambitions, but the fact that the level of aspirants decreased right before the 2012 election provokes some speculation about what is going on in the right wing of American politics.

Because of the lack of strong candidates, some bystanders named the right wing’s primaries a competition between Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs.

Even though the former Alaska governor is adored by the traditional ultraconservative base, she is absolutely not able to win the votes of the majority of Americans. Besides, nobody really knows whether she plans to seriously fight for the White House or if she will just attend the race as part of her constant self-promotion campaign. The rest of the candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and Ambassador to China and former Utah Governor John Huntsman all fall short on electrifying the core voters, who are crucial for the outcome of the Republican primaries.

Against the Presidential Army

The lack of a heated campaign looks awkward in light of the overwhelming victory that Republicans celebrated after the congressional elections last fall. Having in mind, though, that the presidential power in the U.S. is very strong and is given a broad authority, the Republican hesitation does not come as a big surprise. Challenging a White House incumbent has never been an easy task, but now that the economy has started to stabilize and Osama bin Laden was killed, Barack Obama’s chances have grown stronger.

“It is not easy for the Republican Party to provide a really strong nomination. Many of the young conservative politicians believe that it is in their interest to wait four more years when they will be given an equal start in the race,”* says Benjamin Ginsberg, chair of Governmental Studies at Johns Hopkins University. John Sides, a political science professor at George Washington University, also believes that a campaign against the current president in 2012 is simply way riskier that running in 2016.

During the presidential campaign, the White House resident enjoys the favors of his post. He flies with Air Force One, the attention of the media is focused on him anyway, and the American government is his stronger supporter. It is not a coincidence that there are only three American presidents who ever lost the presidential election when running for a second term: Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George Herbert Bush. They all lost because of circumstances beyond their control. Ford had to pay for the anger triggered by his predecessor, Richard Nixon. Carter totally screwed up with the hostages in Iran. Bush had to pay for the lack of unity in the right wing, which was divided by the Independent Ross Perot. Up until now, Obama not only doesn’t need to worry about another leftist candidate, but he also reconfirmed his image of a strong leader with the death of Osama bin Laden.

With all that said, the competition for the White House is anything but over. The weak spot of the president is the slow economic growth, according to Professor Sides. The outcome of the elections in the U.S. has always been dependent upon economic growth. Right now, though, the economy is not performing well enough to secure Barack Obama’s second term. It leaves the door open for the Republicans in case they can offer a robust alternative to the current political course.

The Second Echelon Leads the Attack

The overall impression that the Republican bench is in chaos is fueled by the emergence of unlikely candidates who, all of a sudden, are being given a chance. Under other circumstances, the infidelities of former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich would immediately disqualify him in the eyes of core voters. The ultraconservative Michele Bachmann, member of the United States House of Representatives and a tea party leader, also cannot be seen as a serious challenge. Her presidential candidacy announcement, though, was followed by so much media interest that many bystanders made the comment that she may have stolen some tricks from Sarah Palin. Mitt Romney, who won second place in the primaries in 2008, probably relies on the fact that he won’t have any serious competition. His chances, though, are limited due to his centrist political views, his Mormon religion and last but not least, the universal health care in Massachusetts that was passed by him. For now, his 2012 strategy is to become the elected candidate who nobody wants to elect.

As the sarcastic joke suggests, the Seven Dwarfs running against Sarah Palin would have to master magic in order to electrify the core voters and the tea party activists while pleasing the swing votes who often hold decisive power. “Here is the dilemma of American politics in general: To win the primaries, a candidate needs the support of the core voters, but to win the elections, he needs to move towards the center,”* says Professor Ginsberg.

That is the issue that led many of the moderate politicians to an impasse. Mitch Daniels’ call to put ideology aside and to concentrate all efforts on economy triggered anger among the far right. Most likely, that was the reason that made him leave the race. Those who chose to stay — Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman — had to turn right and to give up on their center-oriented views on certain problems such as the carbon emissions trade. This step, although necessary, didn’t bring to them the love of core Republican voters and will certainly cost them votes on Election Day. The fact that some Republicans are trying to recruit better presidential candidates, like Texas Governor Rick Perry or George Bush’s younger brother, Jeb, while they are trying to attract core voters also came as a low blow for Romney, Pawlenty and Huntsman.

The first internal elections on Feb. 6, 2012, do not leave enough time for the candidates to put together their campaign team, build a platform and raise the millions of dollars needed for advertisements. On the other hand, says Benjamin Ginsberg, Barack Obama has plenty of time to trip over a political drawback on his way to a second term in the Oval Office. A hindrance on the path of the current president will give to a whole array of new candidates that extra push needed to make them join the race.

*Editor’s Note: These quotes, accurately translated, could not be verified.