U.S. Entices Uzbekistan Away from Russia

Washington is prepared to extend a guarantee to President Karimov in exchange for withdrawal from the CSTO.

The U.S. special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Marc Grossman, and the German Federal Government’s special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Michael Steiner, visited the capital of Uzbekistan. Officially, they came to Tashkent as part of the “initiative … aimed at supporting economic rehabilitation of Afghanistan.” According to knowledgeable sources, however, in the course of the talks with the Uzbek President Islam Karimov, other issues were also discussed.

Western visitors of such rank have not been received in Tashkent for a long time. Karimov’s regime is considered to be a dictatorship and is subjected to harsh criticism in the U.S. and other NATO countries for human rights violations. Only extraordinary necessity could compel the diplomats from the U.S. and Germany to break this secret taboo of meeting with the Uzbek president.

“NATO is preparing to pull its contingent from Afghanistan,” head of the Analytical Department at Moscow’s Institute of Political and Military Studies, Alexander Khramchikhin, reminded Izvestiya. “The alliance urgently needs transit bases like the one in the Kyrgyz city of Manas, which was closed under pressure from Moscow.”

The Americans and their allies are looking for a secure departure route. Pakistan, through which NATO entered Afghanistan 10 years ago, is already unsafe, and a supply corridor provided to NATO by Russia is of no use — Moscow prohibits the transit of weapons. So to retreat from Afghanistan, the Americans and their allies will most likely go through Uzbekistan. But that doesn’t mean, warned Khramchikhin, that they won’t overstay their welcome there.

“Islam Karimov has long been burdened by the commitment to an alliance with Russia, which Tashkent was forced into by the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),” the expert established. Uzbekistan openly undermines all measures of the CSTO. The Uzbek army systematically refuses to participate in maneuvers of the Collective Rapid Reaction Forces (CRRF). And Karimov himself has repeatedly and publicly expressed doubt as to the necessity of the CRRF and the CSTO.

Excluding Uzbekistan from the organization, which they are insisting on, would be impossible, particularly for the Russian General Staff. The CSTO remains the only structure capable of defending Moscow’s interests in the former Soviet Union. By withdrawing from the organization, Tashkent would definitively leave the Russian sphere of influence.

For the U.S. and NATO, it would be extremely advantageous to convert Uzbekistan into its main base in Central Asia. In contrast with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, both of which are constantly teetering on the brink of anarchy and civil war, Islam Karimov’s regime exhibits a unique stability for the region. The only question is this: Does the president of Uzbekistan want to exchange Russian protection for American protection?

Former analyst at the Academy of State and Social Building in Tashkent and current political refugee, Yusufjon Rasulov (Rasul Yusuf), has doubts about this. “Karimov isn’t only interested in the security of Uzbekistan, but in his personal security and the security of his family,” the Uzbek political scientist told Izvestiya by phone from Stockholm. “The Americans can give him all kinds of guarantees about protecting his power and money, but there is little faith in them after the Arab Spring.”

Russia, for its part, implicitly supports the stability of Karimov’s regime. On Oct. 13 in the Moscow suburb of Solnechnogorsk, an individual named Botirov was detained by Russian law enforcement. Tashkent declared an international investigation into Russia’s allegations of terrorism; Moscow then announced that it was ready to transfer Botirov to Uzbekistan without delay.