The U.S. and Development of the Missile Defense Shield in the Persian Gulf

The Iranian Diplomacy news website discussed the presence of American forces in the Persian Gulf in an interview with Amir Mousavi, an expert on military and strategic issues.

Last week, The New York Times reported that the U.S. “plans to bolster the American military presence in the Persian Gulf” after withdrawing all its troops from Iraq. By creating a new security alliance in the Persian Gulf, the U.S. plans to build a new defense structure in the region. And it does not appear that it would face opposition from the Persian Gulf’s sheikhdoms. If this plan is implemented, Iran would get into an even tighter corner.

The Obama administration has decided to withdraw all the U.S. troops from Iraq. Meanwhile, there have been murmurs of deploying the forces into the Persian Gulf. Is it possible that the Americans are trying to arrange a new military posture for their troops in the Gulf region?

Essentially, the Americans were after two particular goals by charging Iran with the plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador; their new military actions in the region prove this point. The first goal is to scare Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Persian Gulf countries away from Iran. The U.S. is hoping to leave a new footprint in the region after exiting Iraq. No matter how hard the U.S. tried to remain in Iraq, the Iraqi government could not tolerate the presence of the Americans anymore. Indeed, they are leaving Iraq humiliated.

In addition to the assassination plot against the Saudi Arabian ambassador, it seems the current situation is favorable for convincing Saudi Arabia to accept American forces on its soil: Internal conflicts have intensified due to the recent death of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud. The U.S. has suggested building six huge military bases, first in Saudi Arabia and then in Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. In fact, the U.S. intends to deploy 20,000 to 30,000 troops in the region and not return them to the U.S.

This plan benefits U.S. foreign policy objectives as well as its domestic goals. If all American troops stationed in Iraq return home right now, they would face a number of economic, security and psychological problems. Therefore, the U.S. does not want to bring them back home all at once. Another issue the U.S. has to deal with is the huge cost of withdrawing all its forces from Iraq. If the U.S. obtains agreements from all the Gulf region countries, it can push the expenses of its forces on the host country, solving one of the U.S. military’s economic problems. Besides, they are seeking to strengthen their position in the region to limit the influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The recent Islamic awakening in the region, especially in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, shows that the Arab Spring is following a similar trend as Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979. Israel and the U.S. consider this to be a grave danger to their regional interests.

Right now there is discussion about creating a new security structure in the Persian Gulf. How do you assess the different dimensions of this issue and how it would affect Iran? Would it be a threat to Iran’s security?

Two points need to be taken into account here. The new cooperative security system for the Persian Gulf was actually proposed by Iran. Mr. Ahmadinejad offered this proposal in the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Doha, but it was not accepted. The U.S. is proposing this plan firstly because it has been disappointed by Iran’s proposals on disarmament; secondly, it wants to create [an integrated] missile shield system. They want to connect all the region’s missile bases together: from the missile shield in Al-Naghb, in southern Palestine, to the bases in Turkey. Even if they couldn’t control Iran’s power and prevent it from developing military and nuclear capabilities, the Islamic Republic of Iran would be surrounded and isolated in the region.

Since the Persian Gulf countries are in a weak political position, they would probably agree with this plan. The U.S., of course, insisted greatly on this new cooperative security system. Dr. Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s minister of Foreign Affairs, has recently made efforts to address this issue.

Do you think if Iran starts negotiations and/or consultations with countries such as Qatar or other strategic countries in the region, it would break down the general consensus on collaborating with the U.S.?

Of course, Iran needs to initiate the first step. Iran’s diplomacy should be stronger on this issue; it needs to utilize defense diplomacy more actively. Right now, there are three countries capable of hampering the new U.S. plan in the Gulf region: Qatar, Kuwait and the sultanate of Oman. It appears that, at this stage, Iran could enter into serious security and diplomatic negotiations with these countries and offer a plan for providing their security.

Therefore, I believe this is a very critical stage for Iran. If it neglects or fails to adopt the right diplomatic and security gesture at the right time, Iran could lose its place to the U.S. Due to its presence in the region, the military bases and its good political relationships with the Persian Gulf countries, the U.S. has a good chance of winning the game and creating a nuisance for Iran.

I should emphasize again the point that the Gulf region countries are willing to negotiate with Iran, on the condition that the Islamic Republic starts more open security and diplomatic negotiations.