In One Year, Obama Re-elected?

In exactly one year, Americans will decide if they want to renew their confidence in Barack Obama or if they prefer to let the Republican candidate move into the White House.

At first glance, President Obama seems to be in a precarious position in terms of getting a second four-year term. On top of that, he doesn’t hesitate to play the role of the outsider.

Upon taking office three years ago, he became the head of a country plunged, like the rest of the world, into a severe economic crisis. Although it was not enough, his stimulus package probably prevented the U.S. from falling into a dreaded depression. Today, the unemployment rate is still around 9 percent, and the housing market remains in severe depression. Fears of another recession have resurfaced, which does not favor the re-election of the Democratic president.

The emergence of the tea party in Congress during the midterm elections seriously complicated Mr. Obama’s task. This was evident in the controversy over increasing the debt ceiling last summer. The stubbornness of the Republican far right almost put the government into default and led to the United States’ credit rating drop — a humiliating first.

The poor state of the U.S. economy has overshadowed Obama’s successes, including the adoption of a unique health insurance program — it has since been challenged in court — and the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. special forces in Pakistan. And another star can be added to his report card: No scandal has tainted his administration.

The problem — not to say that it is a catastrophe — is that Obama’s approval rating of 43 percent is far from pleasing.

Obama’s salvation may lie in the relative weakness of his Republican opponent. To date, no GOP candidate has really stood out. Consistent but rather bland, Mitt Romney remains the favorite. His centrist positions and success in business could make him a viable alternative for Americans who want to punish Mr. Obama should the economic gloom persist, but the former governor of Massachusetts is having trouble obtaining more than 25 percent of Republican support. Supporters of the tea party, who play a large and very vocal role within the party, would prefer the election of an even more right-wing candidate, like Herman Cain, haunted by his record of sexual harassment, or Rick Perry, whose popularity was as spectacular as it was short-lived

Do you think President Obama will be shown the door on Nov. 6, 2012, like Jimmy Carter in 1980? Or do you think he can pick himself up and do what Bill Clinton did in 1996 or what Ronald Reagan did in 1984?

I would not take Obama’s defeat for granted. A small ray of light in the economic sky might encourage Americans to give him another chance, rather than settle for a Republican candidate that lacks stature.