Scared? So Are We

If the Americans are determined and talking about a possible attack on Iran, how come they are not willing to impose sanctions on the country’s Central Bank?

Should America strike Iran at some point, you can tell that the first clear public sign of this development took place yesterday, December 20, 2011. After a long series of flaccid expressions, controversial signals and embarrassing vacillations, United States Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, exactly the same plenipotentiary who poured cold water on us as to the Iranian issue over the past weeks, aligns to the right: The timetable of the operational nuclear capability in Iran shortens to “within a year,” and the U.S., so Panetta claims, won’t let this happen. Yes, if necessary, he’ll use force. Panetta delivered the stuff in a recorded interview, while squinting a resolute look into the camera. Could it be that they have finally realized?

The thing is, it’s really not sure. What they did realize is that their line of defeatist expressions is causing huge damage, fanning the flames of the Iranian nuke and pushing the ayatollahs to go ahead with all their strength. At the last Saban Forum, Panetta’s own statements have reached the climax. The dialogue between the Israelis and Americans was a conversation of the deaf, with the Americans stressing over and over again all the shortcomings of offending Iran, and the Israelis explaining to them, in response, that nobody believes the United States when it asserts that “all the options are on the table.”

Now, it seems, they fathomed at least this point: Even with no intention to attack, [they] must threaten seriously and loudly, to look like someone who intends to attack. Wasn’t the only time Iran suspended its military program on the eve of the American invasion of Iraq? This proves that the Iranians understand power and do not volunteer to go bang their head against the wall.

A New Itinerary

Now, at last, it seems that even the wall got it. The first swallow popped up in the article U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro published in Ma’ariv a few weeks ago; then, there came the words Dennis Ross issued last week, and now, there comes the boom of Panetta.

Further on: What’s the meaning of this new schedule, according to Panetta, who talks about “within a year”? It appears an early joy. No, the Americans are not positive that in the course of a year, there will be a functional bomb in Iran. They are opining that the Iranians are in the condition that their “time of foray” to the bomb is one year, give or take a bit. From the moment they make up their mind that they come up with a foray, or sneak to the bomb, a resolution that would require expulsion of the UN inspectors and an overt confrontation with the world, a year is going to pass till the ultimate goal is achieved. The Iranians have not made this decision yet. Thus, we’re talking a year, but it’s unclear from when we are to start counting it.

And here are some more reservations: If the Americans are so resolved and talking about a tactical option, how is it that they are not willing to even impose sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran? The Senate is ready, the House of Representatives is ready, the officials in the administration are ready — the White House is not.

Not to even hear about that. Why? This is simple: Sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran — it’s an oil crisis, it’s a steep rise in the fuel prices and it means that Barack Obama’s chances to get re-elected to the presidency next November are close to those of Bashar Assad being the president of Syria on the same date. Since Obama does not have a death wish, he leaves the Central Bank of Iran out of the game so far. So, an offensive? Obviously not.

At the end, regardless of where we look at this from, we’re about to arrive at the same sad conclusion: For us, the Iranian nuke is a matter of life; for America, it’s a question of cost of living. Until after November, the Americans are stuck with the elections; therefore, it’s hard to believe that they would go war on something or somebody. And after November, it might be, according to the timetable, too late. Scared? So are we.