Stinging or Fragile?

The story of sanctions against Iran has been a repetitive and, of course, boring story spanning the past three decades. In the most recent decade, a new chapter in this story was presented, and that story was that the issue of sanctions being directly tied to Iran becoming nuclear. The main part of the story in this new chapter has a constant refrain in which the Islamic Republic [of Iran] is always accused of building an atomic weapon so that imposing sanctions has a so-called rational justification, and even a legal hue and shine.

But it’s interesting that when the Western media want to reflect on the story of sanctions, they admit the reality is something different and this story doesn’t have a concrete plot.

The reality, from the tongue of Jeremy Hammond, editor of Foreign Policy, is worth reading: “Iran is singled out because it defies America.”

Of course, the real story of the sanctions and Iran going nuclear does not end here. It has a bitter chapter for America and a few of the countries who follow them, which the Washington Post could not pass by with the analysis that Iran, despite pressure and sanctions, has achieved nuclear technology. They wrote: “For years it was imagined that economic and political sanctions could make Iran willing to compromise to one side of the negotiation, but this was an illusion. Iran’s resistance has undermined this notion, which once had advocates, and the West was dumbfounded … In the history of nuclear countries, Iran is an exception and has achieved this technology without foreign assistance.”*

Therefore, saying the sanctions were and are due to Iran becoming nuclear is wrong and costly; on the other hand, the sanctions project has been transformed and subjected to a process over time for the so-called containment of Iran only.

But this writing is trying to carefully analyze and asses the problem now that in recent days and weeks the issue of sanctioning Iranian oil has climaxed in the media and it has been alleged by the United States and two or three other European countries that these particular sanctions are stinging or crippling for Iran.

The pivotal point in the temporary circumstances and requirements is in the area of regional and global developments, which have caused the actual implementation of the Iranian oil sanctions, beyond just being a figurative or press platform, to be faced with numerous obstacles and their fulfillment to be put on hold. Why? Read on.

1. The first reason is that the circumstances for America and Europe to pursue the subject of sanctions on Iranian oil — which, if they did, could prove useful — are very tenuous. The widespread financial crisis in Europe over the past four years has been back-breaking. European countries have become extremely vulnerable and can’t afford to take risks, so much so that a few days ago, the credit rating agency, Standard and Poor’s, announced that the credit rating for the French economy and eight other European countries has been downgraded. Because oil is a strategic and vital commodity, decisions concerning it will be made cautiously. This is the very reason that members of the E.U. have intense disagreements concerning the Iranian oil embargo. Whenever discussion on the topic escalates, they postpone it. Recently, the Bloomberg News network reported that Europe had delayed sanctions of Iranian oil for a period of six months. Reuters clarified: Sanctioning Iranian oil has been deferred until July 1.

According to published reports, there are deep-rooted differences; some members are even pursuing a 12-month postponement of the Iranian oil sanctions.

America’s situation is, if not worse than Europe, certainly not better. In addition to this, today, America is the most indebted government in the world, and the debt of this country has exceeded $15 trillion and is increasing every day. It is engaged in a 99 percent protest movement whose economic and political consequences are strongly and intensely squeezing the throat of the of the capitalist system. Ironically, America, with these calculations, wants to help Europe’s condition through oil sanctions against Iran, to which it must be said, “The blind leading the blind!”

2. Another reason for this is that many European countries that buy Iranian oil are opposed to the issue of sanctioning Iranian oil because they have a quite clear and explicit argument: “increase in oil price.”

It was in following this line of reasoning that Agence France-Presse reported despairingly about the sanctions of Iranian oil by the European Union and explained: “The agreements are fragile”; and this fragility is so evident that reports indicate Italy, Spain and Greece have extended their own oil contracts with Iran in 2012.

3. In continuation, the reasons why America’s movements and efforts to sanction Iranian oil have failed so far are worth mentioning.

The Americans have tried very hard to persuade China to go along with them on the issue of sanctioning Iranian oil due to China’s economic and political standing, but it is interesting to listen to the results as told by Gary Locke, U.S. ambassador to Beijing, who clearly confesses that his country’s efforts to lobby for China’s cooperation in sanctioning Iranian oil have failed. Meanwhile, China, during an official statement protesting America, announced its cooperation with Iran will continue in the sectors of energy and commerce. This situation was repeated in Japan and the American officials’ trip to this country did not produce results. The answer of Japan’s foreign minister about sanctioning Iranian oil was that this sanction would have a negative impact not only on Japan, but also the global economy.

It was on Monday of this week [January 16 ] that an American delegation under the leadership of Robert Einhorn entered South Korea for a period of three days; however, the response of Seoul’s officials again showed the disappointment of Americans because Korean officials announced that sanctions on buying Iranian oil will cause heavy losses to the economy of South Korea. Even after the trip to South Korea by Einhorn, special advisor to the U.S. secretary of state, the South Korean people held widespread protests and demonstrations against the Iranian oil embargo.

4. Likewise, in addition to the opposition of European and Asian countries to the Iranian oil embargo, Russia’s position is of critical importance.

Furthermore, Moscow officials have repeatedly announced their opposition to the Iranian oil embargo. What demands more reflection are the comments by Gennady Gatilov, one of the senior officials in Russia’s foreign ministry, who recently noted, “We will veto every resolution about sanctioning Iranian oil.”

5. Another reason showing that an Iranian oil embargo will find another fate when put into practice, and that claims and action are miles apart, is an indicator called the sanctions on the Central Bank.

Although Obama signed sanctions against our country’s Central Bank on the 11th of the month of Dey [January 1], the important part is that there is faint compatibility between the title of these sanctions and the text that leads to its becoming operational. The flexibility of this regulation goes so far that the Jewish World News Network by implication — nearly assertion — revealed that the possibility for Obama to circumvent the aforementioned sanctions is stated in the text of the sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank. Based on this point, there is not the slightest doubt that America lacks the conditions and ability to enact sanctions against Iran.

Two days ago [January 17], the New York Times addressed the issue from the same perspective and acknowledged that Obama’s sanctions against Iran impact the economy of the [U.S.] and make the election campaign more difficult for Obama.

6. Finally, it must be said that, after the powerful and meaningful exercises of Velayat-90, the Islamic Republic’s power to close the Strait of Hormuz was revealed to the world in practice — and not as a slogan. The enemy, who had earlier drawn the weapon of oil sanctions against Iran, can now better calculate the irreversible consequences of an Iranian oil embargo, and the fear of realizing those consequences has weakened the pursuit of oil sanctions.