The Turkish and American foreign ministers’ Washington press conference resembled the announcement of a joint action plan. Even if Syria was not the only thing on the agenda at the meeting, it is clear that Syria is the target of the operation.
According to the statement, the mediation efforts led by the Arab League are being supported by a group of Syria’s allies. In fact, the title “Friends of Syria” must be changed to “Friends of the Syrians.” Due to the fact that Turkey, a member of the group, wants America to join, it is obvious that the title of ally is not a reference to the current Syrian state.
It was reported that while methods of political appeasement were being tried in order to stop the violence, diplomatic pressure would also continue. “Diplomatic pressure” most likely refers to an attempt by international organizations to use a legal route to convict the Syrian administration. However, more important than aiming diplomatic pressure at Syria itself is the application of pressure to the allies of the Syrian regime. In this respect, Iran may be the first country to come to mind. However, if we remember how angry Clinton was at the veto by Russia and China in the U.N. Security Council against intervention in Syria, Russia could also be considered the main target of this diplomatic pressure.
An Invitation to Russia
On the hint of diplomatic pressure being applied to Russia, it is not apparent if America and Turkey are in agreement. However, it is understood that the U.S. made a recommendation to Turkey to “win the Caucuses,” and therefore Turkey’s part is restricted by avoiding attempts to push the Caucus nations into the embrace of Russia. To understand this, one must also understand the emphasis that the U.S. is putting on the opening of the theological school (a reference to the opening of the currently closed Orthodox Halki Seminary that is located in Turkey).
Really, why isn’t this school being opened?
The U.S., expressing that the Russian issue was directly related to the Syria issue, pointed to another topic in the press conference. It was that there is not much time left to wait.
It is clear that the weapons have been unsheathed for some time now, and if the Syrian regime is not neutralized, Iran’s restraint toward Israel will have reached is limit. In short, either Iran will enter a war with Israel, or the U.S. and Turkey will intercede between them using the Syrian issue. Turkey, which is fed up with Iranian politics but opposed to sanctions, and the U.S., which is also fed up with Israel but won’t allow it to be harmed, will take a place in this initiative.
In the meantime, Russia is also being presented with a decision. Either Russia will join the U.S. and Turkey in pressuring to Assad to halt the conflict, or it will lose Syria and withdraw to the Iran-Armenian border.
The Possibility of Intervention
It has become known that the U.S. and Turkey have gotten tired of waiting and are entering a more proactive period. The types of activities that may be carried out have been hinted at. The first stage of these activities is the expansion of human aid corridors and the removal of Assad’s supervision from these areas. After that comes the designation of a buffer, or no-fly zones. The latter requires international approval; it is understood that the U.S. is not keen on getting such approval from the U.N.
In this situation, action on humanitarian grounds can be advanced; while an international coalition is created, an area for those escaping from the carnage can be opened. Even if civil elements are used throughout the entire undertaking, eventually a military intervention will become the subject in question; weapons will be used to limit Assad’s authority in some locations.
If the Syrian regime does not take a step back and if Russia does not take America’s side, it can be said that tense days are ahead for Turkey. It should be remembered that Turkey is not keen on the intervention process. The fact that the crisis in the (Turkish) National Intelligence Organization, the increasing incidents of terror and Iraq were not events mentioned in the press conference seems to point to an unavoidable operation.
Either the US figures out a way to effect regime change in Syria, or Washington’s relationship with the GCC — the big oil producers — is at risk. And since things did not turn out as expected with respect to Iraq’s oil, the US really can’t afford to blow it this time.
Turkey must somehow feel it’s between a rock and a hard place, what with the US trying to pressure Turkey into doing the dirty deed. After all, it’s an election year, and Americans are fed up with expensive invasions of Muslim countries for the purpose of regime change.
For Turkey, NATO membership is as much a curse as a blessing. It’s done its part in helping to provoke the appearance of a civil war in Syria, so it’s now faced with the question: In for a penny, in for a pound?