Obama Increases His Advantage in All of the Key States

Lifted up by the Hispanic vote and the errors of his opponent, President Barack Obama has increased his advantage in all of the decisive states and has become the clear favorite to win the elections this November. The Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, seems obligated to put all of his hope in the electoral debates to come and in last-minute movements, like the publication of his tax returns, which he did this past Friday.

Romney did not consent to reveal a decade of his financial activity like the Democrats asked of him, but he did announce an income around $14 million in 2011 and a payment to the United States of $1.9 million, confirming his privileged condition regarding fiscal matters: He only paid 14.1 percent [of his income] in taxes. This information may have little effect at this point. Much more important will be Romney’s performance in the first debate on Oct. 3 in Denver, Colorado.

Colorado, which until now was one of the states in which the fight was closest, has also come to favor Obama, who has the support of more than 70 percent of the Latino vote. According to a poll published by NBC and The Wall Street Journal Friday, the president now has the advantage by five points in Colorado, another five in Wisconsin — [which should be] aggravating, as it is the home state of Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan — and eight in Iowa, where Romney had previously held the lead.

Those facts add to other polls from this week that situated Obama ahead by eight points in Virginia, by five in Florida and Ohio and by similar margins in New Hampshire and Nevada. In the rest of the states, the race is practically decided in favor of one candidate or the other — with more states favoring the president — and by which the option of victory for Romney has been reduced significantly over the last few days. At this time, the poll from the website Real Clear Politics, one of the most thorough but also most prudent polls, gives 247 Electoral College votes to President Obama and 191 to Romney. A candidate needs 270 votes in order to obtain the majority, forcing the Republican candidate to perform a great feat in the six weeks that remain before Election Day.

Few times in history have produced an upset of that magnitude, although some opportunities remain for it to occur. The uncertainty regarding the international situation, including the instability in the Middle East and Iran and the relationship between China and Japan can still play a role in an unpredictable manner. Also, economic figures, especially the data regarding unemployment rates that will be released in the beginning of October, can influence the race. However, above all, it is the behavior of Romney in the debates that will decide this campaign.

The Republican candidate has prepared exhaustively for that moment. If he has partaken in less public acts than some Republican leaders would have like, it is, according to Romney’s campaign, because he has dedicated this time to practice for the debates. He has a double challenge in this occasion: to show that Obama has failed as president and that he, Romney, is better able to lift up the economy. The latter was his great ploy in the beginning of the race. However, right now, Obama leads even in the polls that measure with whom there exists more opportunity for economic recovery. Support for the Obama administration is around 50 percent, its highest level since Obama’s first months in office.