The Riches Problem

Whether he’s called Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, the next president of the United States will have the huge privilege of being confronted by the problem of riches. At a time when the majority of countries are facing an increase in energy prices and a decrease in their resources, whether oil or gas, America is riding a new energy revolution. Now, after the shale oil boom, there is a second gold rush — and shale gas is what’s emerging. If the most optimistic experts aren’t mistaken, underground, beneath the 50 states of America, the rock could indeed be packed with more black gold than Saudi Arabia and Iran put together!

If these insane estimations aren’t just hot air, the next White House host will have to decide extremely quickly if should he authorize the oil [companies] to export the black gold drawn up from Yankee ground or keep it for domestic use? Officially ultra-liberal and in favor of an open market, America should, according to all logic, let the oil fill its pockets and flood the market. But America, also knowing how to be pragmatic, could well open the tap for oil exports to only a trickle. Modeling themselves on the Gulf countries, who in preparation for post-oil times sought to diversify their economy and industrialize, the United States could try to accelerate their re-industrialization and, in doing so, enjoy an energy renaissance. The surge in shale gas has already allowed for the creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs in America. In turn, the arrival of shale oil could boost America’s competitiveness and stimulate a new virtuous circle of industrial investment.

But if it is barely exported, the mass arrival of this American oil should, in time, mechanically provoke a fall in world oil prices. Even if they keep it for themselves, the Americans will contribute to the reduction of these prices. Above all, the economic effect will be beneficial not only to the United States, but also to the margin in other countries. But if we step away from purely economic considerations, if the United States becomes self-sufficient in its energy needs, will it still be willing to play the role of world policeman for much longer? Is it fair to say that this new oil boom risks having serious and painful geopolitical repercussions, as it pushes America towards new isolationist temptations?