White Voters Support Romney, Minorities Obama

Published in El Mundo
(Spain) on 3 November 2012
by Pablo Pardo (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Cydney Seigerman. Edited by Jane Lee.
Mitt Romney is 23 points ahead of Barack Obama among white voters. Obama leads his rival by 90 points among blacks, 50 points among immigrants from Latin America and 9 points among Asians. In 2008, the current president won 44 percent of the white vote. In this election, the polls indicate that he will barely achieve 37 percent.

For this reason, although Obama has the title of “post-racial president,” in reality, it is the opposite. Overall, whites are voting for Romney and minorities (Asians, blacks and Latinos) for Obama. In fact, these are the most racially polarized elections in the United States since 1988, when Republican George H.W. Bush destroyed Democrat Michael Dukakis. At that time, Dukakis had the support of minority groups.

The big difference is that now, the minority groups are larger. In 2010, 69.1 percent of Americans were white. In 2012, that percentage has dropped to 63.7 percent. In 2050, whites will no longer be the majority in the United States. That implies that the Republicans have a large problem: Their electorate is on the way to becoming a minority.

In this election, in fact, the big question for the Republican Party is how to successfully incorporate minority groups. An example: A third of the population of Texas is of Hispanic origin. Until now, that group has barely voted. However, if the same dynamic as in California continues, the group’s participation will gradually increase, with members aligning themselves with Democrats. If Texas is no longer guaranteed for Republicans in the presidential election, that party will see their power base gravely threatened.

Beyond these considerations, however, the racial vote implies that ethnic divisions continue to be a determining factor when the time comes to choose who is elected in the United States.


Mitt Romney lleva 23 puntos de ventaja a Barack Obama entre los blancos. Obama lleva a su rival 90 puntos de ventaja entre los afroamericanos; 50 entre los inmigrantes de América Latina; y 9 entre los asiáticos. En 2008, el actual presidente consiguió el 44% del voto de los blancos. En éstas, las encuestas apuntan a que apenas alcanzará el 37%.

Así pues, aunque Obama tenga la etiqueta de presidente post-racial, la realidad es la contrario. En líneas generales, los blancos votan a Romney y las minorías (asiáticos, afroamericanos y latinoamericanos) a Obama. De hecho, éstas son las elecciones con mayor polarización racial en Estados Unidos desde 1988, cuando el republicano George Bush padre derrotó al demócrata Michael Dukakis. En aquella ocasión, Dukakis tenía el apoyo de las minorías.

La gran diferencia es que las minorías son ahora más. En 2010, el 69,1% de los estadounidenses eran blancos. En 2012, esa proporción había descendido al 63,7%. Y en 2050 los blancos dejarán de ser mayoría en EEUU. Eso implica que los republicanos tienen un grave problema: su electorado está camino de ser minoritario.

En estas elecciones, de hecho, la gran cuestión para el Partido Republicano es cómo conseguir incoporar a las minorías. Un ejemplo: un tercio de la población de Texas es de origen hispano. Hasta ahora, ese grupo apenas ha votado. Pero, si sigue la misma dinámica que en California, incrementará gradualmente su participación y se orientará hacia los demócratas. Si Texas llega a convertirse en un Estado que los republicanos no tengan garantizada la victoria en unas elecciones presidenciales, ese partido verá gravemente amenazada su base de poder.

Más allá de estas consideraciones, sin embargo, el voto racial implica que las divisiones étnicas siguen siendo un factor determinante a la hora de elegir a quién se vota en Estados Unidos.
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