Netanyahu Bets on Romney

On Tuesday, American voters will set the course for policy in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As Prime Minister Netanyahu hopes for regime change in Washington, Israelis desiring peace are hoping Obama will get a second term.

Who is Israel’s truest ally, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? That question arose several times during the election campaign. The subject of Israel came up a total of 34 times during the foreign policy debate between the Massachusetts governor and the U.S. president.

Both candidates declared how close they were with Israel in their television ads. Romney made a brief visit there in September prior to attending a fundraising gala where he was seen with Prime Minister Netanyahu at his side. Obama countered by quoting Israeli Foreign Minister Ehud Barak, who said that Israel’s military relations with the U.S. are currently stronger than they have ever been under any other president.

Romney Is Buddy-Buddy with Netanyahu

Eytan Gilboa, professor at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv’s Bar-Ilan University, said that seldom had a U.S. election played such a prominent role in Israel. Why that is so is easy to see: Obama handily won the Jewish vote in 2008, garnering 78 percent. This year, Republicans see the chilly relations between Obama and Netanyahu as their chance to pick up a few percentage points for Romney.

If Israelis could vote in U.S. elections, Romney — in contrast to the rest of the world — would probably already have the election in the bag. Israelis still hold it against Obama that he visited Egypt and Turkey shortly after assuming the presidency in 2009, but didn’t make a stop in Israel, America’s closest ally in the Middle East. In addition, Israel’s right wing parliamentary faction is counting heavily on the Republican.

In Israel, Romney is seen as “Bibi’s buddy.” Both he and Netanyahu share not only the same patron — Las Vegas casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson — they also share the same world view. In the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program, Romney appears to adhere more to Netanyahu’s hard-line stance on Iran, making relations between Netanyahu and Obama full of mistrust. Obama is unlikely to forget Netanyahu’s efforts to convince voters to vote for Romney instead.

Little Room for Confrontation

Netanyahu has an equally large stake in the U.S. election’s outcome. If Obama is re-elected, it proves that Netanyahu made a grave miscalculation. In a second term, Obama could deliver a lot of payback without having to consider lobbyist pressure when standing for election again. In all probability, there would be a resumption of pressure from Washington for Israel to halt settlement building on the West Bank.

Obama would also grant the Israelis little maneuvering room in any planned military venture against the mullahs in Tehran. With Romney in his corner, Netanyahu would hold the best cards to ensure his victory in the Israeli elections scheduled for Jan. 22. He would then be more powerful than ever.

Regarding the Israeli opposition, the situation is reversed. Compared to Netanyahu’s coalition between the right wing conservative Likud Party and the right wing populist Lieberman Party, Israeli opposition is divided and weak. But an Obama victory would give it a great boost. That’s at least former Prime Minister and Kadima Party head Ehud Olmert’s hope. He will await the outcome of the U.S. presidential race to better calculate his own possibilities of election victory.

Romney the Greater Evil

Meanwhile, liberal party boss Shelly Yachimovich could also profit from an Obama victory. Were she to be received on short notice by the U.S. president, it would enormously increase her image among Israeli voters. Professor Gilboa muses that the Israeli elections next January will depend a lot on who wins in the United States.

But neither Israelis nor Palestinians expect any rapid changes in U.S. foreign policy. The autonomy leader Mahmoud Abbas may prefer Obama over Romney — mainly because Netanyahu’s buddy Romney openly declared the Palestinians to be at fault for the collapse of the peace process. For them, Romney would clearly be the greater evil.