Will China Help the US Calm Kim Jong-Un?

Will Obama raise his voice against North Korea? To what end? The nuclear threat from Kim Jong-Un obviously worries the United States very much. But the first rule, in these cases, is this one: Do not seem (very) scared. The Korean dictator’s game will be played. “The bottom line, very simply, is that what Kim Jong-Un has been choosing to do is provocative, it is dangerous, reckless,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said. It is evident that four years of diplomatic efforts have not been enough, so far, to neutralize the Pyongyang menace, like the Tehran one. Some accuse Obama of having reawakened the North Korean threat.

After Pyongyang’s renewed threat (“Ready to hit America with an atomic bomb”), the United States hurriedly sent an anti-missile defense system to Guam. But Washington is afraid to push itself too far forward. It fears that a very aggressive attitude could trigger a more profound crisis. Because of this, as some sources have told The Wall Street Journal, the White House for the moment has ordered the suspension of an earlier plan approved by Obama, the so-called “playbook,” fearing that Pyongyang, with a nuclear arsenal that is limited only by an absolutely unpredictable leader, could feel more provoked than intended. “The fear is reinforcing the prospect of miscomprehension by the North Koreans,” said an administration source, “and that this could lead to wrong decisions.” In sum, America is scared of scaring North Korea too much. And this could start the crisis. The United States does not believe North Korea really wants to launch missiles to respond to U.S.-South Korea joint exercises, where Washington has applied its plan and demonstrated its muscles (B-52 and B-2 bombers and F-22 raptors.)

In this new chapter of nuclear tension, it could be China that plays the decisive role in the end, calming the nerves of 30-year-old Kim Jong-Un. U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, after a telephone interview with his colleague in Beijing, Chang Wanquan, confirmed: “We are doing everything we can, working with the Chinese and others, to defuse that situation on the peninsula.”