Meeting of the Friends of Syria: John Kerry Prudent against the Anti-Assad Front

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had to work hard yesterday to rally his Arab and European allies behind his road map. The future of Assad, within the gamut of political solutions in Syria, remains a controversial subject. It is clear now that the U.S., taking into account the situation on the ground, is increasingly less inclined to demand the Syrian president’s departure. Despite the purported obligation on the part of London, Paris, Doha and Riyadh to fall into line behind Uncle Sam, the conference promises to be difficult.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague wasted no time yesterday, just before the beginning of the meeting, in crossing the red line. “It is the longstanding view of the U.K. that Assad needs to go, and we have never been able to see any solution which involves him staying [in power],” he declared in a press conference, setting the scene and defining the tone for a meeting supposed to serve to reach a consensus before the famous International Conference on Syria, or “Geneva 2.”

There seems to be no doubt in Hague’s mind. John Kerry, on the other hand, speaks with much more nuance. Not only did he fail to allude to the departure of Assad as a condition sine qua non, he went as far as to call on the president to “commit to peace” in Syria, shortly before the meeting started. “We would call on President Assad to make the same commitment to find peace in his country,” declared Kerry during a press conference held alongside his Jordanian equivalent, Nasser Judeh.

This declaration surely jarred in the ears of the foreign ministers of the U.K., France, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This matters less than the fact that John Kerry appears to be spelling out the new approach to be taken by the Americans toward Syria, an approach that takes into account the forces present on the ground, but also of the position taken by the Russians, whose participation is vital for any agreement. The enormity of the task facing Kerry is manifest; the secretary of state shares the concerns of the Friends of Syria, yet recognizes that Russian support will be the key to the success of any peace initiative.

Yet Kerry didn’t hesitate to draw a red line for the regime in Damascus. “In the event that the Assad regime is unwilling to negotiate Geneva 1 in good faith, we will also talk about our continued support and our growing support for the opposition to permit them to continue to be able to fight for the freedom of their country,” he warned.

This constitutes a genuine emergency exit offered by Kerry to the Assad regime, inviting the Syrian president to demonstrate his willingness to participate in the International Conference on Syria and its goal of a peaceful dialogue with the opposition to find a political solution to the crisis. First, though, Kerry must convince his allies to follow him. “We are committed to try to work this evening to find the unity in specific approaches, to find the unity to implement Geneva 1 … that will allow the people of Syria to choose the future of Syria,” he declared.

Yet he himself knows full well that it will be difficult to save Assad’s skin. “I would ask anybody of common sense, can a person who has allegedly used gas against his people, can a person who has killed upwards of 70,000 people … used tanks and shells against women and children … Can that person be judged to have the legitimacy to lead that country in the future?” he asked. “That’s at the center of that struggle and that’s why this discussion is not easy.”

Russia, however, does not see the situation in this light. Its head of diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, yesterday hailed the “constructive” reaction of the Damascus regime toward the organization of a peace conference referred to as “Geneva 2,” during a reception in Moscow of the Syrian deputy minister of foreign affairs, Faycal Moqdad. “We appreciate the constructive reaction of the Syrian leaders toward this proposition, and we consider that your visit will aid in building concrete details,”* declared Lavrov before the meetings. In Moscow, there may be a Russian-American agreement on Syria, but at the moment, it is hanging by a thread.

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.