US Practices Self-Containment

It is two to one for Iran, even if the success the West has reached together with Russia means the Iranian bomb march has been temporarily halted. In this way, the incalculable risk that comes with the military option has been taken off the table. This also goes for the Israelis, who would risk a solo attempt today even less than before the Geneva agreement.

Iran has pledged not to enrich its uranium above a level of five percent. It will also dismantle the centrifuges which are still producing, and not install any others. Iran will dilute the highly concentrated U-235 or convert it to a form not suitable for further enrichment. The country will temporarily no longer pursue its plan for plutonium bombs. United Nations inspectors will be allowed to visit some sites daily instead of only weekly.

That is real progress, despite the critics in America, Saudi Arabia and Israel, but let us not be fooled. The Geneva Agreement has not ended the nuclear weapons program; it is also not shrinking, as the West has claimed for the last 10 years. The film has been paused, not removed from the program.

However, this time, Tehran has paid for the time gain. Geneva has turned over a new leaf, and neither the optimists nor the pessimists know how it will all pan out. At first glance, the U.N. veto powers and Germany (P5+1) did not cede much. As it stands, sanctions at a value of $5 to $7 billion are being relaxed. Iran is once again allowed to export petrochemicals and commence gold trading, which is how the country had, somewhat painstakingly, managed to get around blocked financial transactions. Its auto and aircraft sectors will be partially freed from the stranglehold of the sanctions.

Time Gain for Iran

So, how is it two to one for Iran? The P5+1 have made waste paper of all U.N. resolutions that required a harsh quid pro quo: Relief will be given only if Iran renounces enrichment of any kind. Two further benefits have been added to the deal. First, Iran may continue to build the Arak reactor; it has only pledged not to get it running. In addition, there will be no unannounced inspections in the whole country.

In other words, the film can continue to be played at any time, but the U.N. inspector will only find out in what cinema—an unknown number of which remain secret—when the breakout has already begun. Particularly skeptical souls could be pessimistic about a three to one, which far exceeds technical expectations. Iran’s strategic position today is significantly better than in April 2003. At that time, the American victory in Iran frightened Tehran so much that it suspended its weapons program for a while.

Today, Iran can quietly celebrate, if it examines the new setup. The hardliners in Jerusalem, Riyadh and Paris have been isolated; instead, the delicate, young plant is flowering and moving closer to Washington. The circle of containment has been broken, and certainly without Iran having to compromise on its continuing ambitions in Syria, Lebanon and the Gulf.

Good-willed souls would be against this: A start has been made, and it is looking better than every failed American attempt since 2003. Correct. This new beginning can also bear fruit in the eternal struggle for power between reformists and reactionaries in Iran. Rouhani stands today as the president who can deliver; meanwhile, the provocateur, Ahmadinejad, has become a nonperson. This is also correct, but in this accursed region, armament supervision—in this case, the postponed weapons program—is just one facet. The root of the problem is a never-ending, hegemonic conflict with alternating lead actors. At the moment, the actors are called America and Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and recently, Russia once again. The bomb is just a symptom, not the cause.

This drama would be more predictable if America were willing to act as the peacekeeper, as it has been for the last 60 years. However, Barack Obama’s America is retreating: It seems to want to wear the vexatious cloak no longer; it is conducting self-containment, so to speak. Furthermore, Obama is nowadays a lame duck at home. To settle on the reform-zealous Rouhani in such a setup is to ignore the deadly dynamic in all Middle Eastern politics.

Whoever wants this new chapter to have a happy ending cannot rely on friendly diplomatic processes alone. Pakistan demonstrates how the Middle East works. In 1972, it launched its nuclear program; in 1998, it detonated five test bombs. It sold knowhow to Iran and North Korea, supported the Taliban in Afghanistan and guaranteed Bin Laden protection. Today, it still acts like an ally of the United States.