Little Willingness To Isolate Putin

The leaders of the richest countries in the world decided to meet in Brussels on June 4 to 5 as the G-7, instead of attending the G-8 summit in Sochi; the West has suspended Russia for the annexation of Crimea. However, on June 6, Obama, Hollande and Merkel will celebrate the 70th anniversary of D-Day together with Putin.

Even if no bilateral meeting with Putin is held during the celebrations in France — Obama has already ruled out such a possibility — his presence will confirm that against what the United States claims, the West has only diplomatically isolated the Kremlin in a half-hearted manner. That will not change. It is good news that the president of Russia will take part in the celebrations, said Merkel.

Russia is a powerful country too, economically and politically connected to Europe — at the same time, it is a nuclear superpower — and it is improbable that the European Union would ever treat it like Alexander Lukashenko, who is not only isolated, but has also been stuck on the black list and is banned from entering the EU member states. Nothing similar will ever happen to Putin, as long as he is in power. It is hard to imagine that the Russian leader has become “persona non grata” in all of Europe — EU diplomats agree unanimously.

A group of just a few EU member states — with Poland, the United Kingdom and Sweden, among others — which are trying to convince Brussels that it is no longer possible to reach an honest agreement with Putin, has not expanded since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, in spite of [Russia] annexing Crimea, inciting separatism, and threatening a military invasion. Schroeder’s recent visit to St. Petersburg, where he celebrated his birthday, aroused repugnance with regard to the former German chancellor’s style. However, Schroeder explains that “thanks to the dialogue” with Putin, he helped release the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe emissaries — taken hostage by Russian supporters. Although quietly so far, many EU member states have taken this argument seriously.

Putin, with his “constructive tone” —as it is called in Europe — has been recently helping supporters of the dialogue — i.e. politicians and EU governments that are reluctant to firmly defy the Kremlin. Such a confrontation would require tough economic sanctions, which would be expensive for Europe. In the meantime, France is preparing not only for Putin’s visit, but at the beginning of June, it will also welcome several hundred Russian sailors for Mistral training. In spite of America’s protests, France is going to supply Russia with assault ships.

Putin’s “constructive tone” would entail, for example, hints that he might recognize the Ukrainian presidential elections on May 25, but also hold back from officially recognizing the results of the pseudo-referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk — Moscow has merely announced that they are “respected” — and call for negotiations between Kiev and the separatists. [The idea that] it is a sign that Moscow is not planning a new annexation has persuaded the chiefs of diplomacy of the EU states, who debated in Brussels yesterday. This is why yesterday’s extension of sanctions against Russia is moderate. The blacklist of individuals who are banned from entering the EU member states and whose moneyed wealth is frozen in EU territory was expanded to 13.

It is possible that Putin sounds conciliatory because at this stage of the conflict, he is getting close to his tactical targets: involving Kiev in negotiations with armed separatists, something that the West will be also force. As the Kremlin expects, that could lead to a federalized Ukraine — much desired by Russia — which means blocking its way to the West. Since key players from Western Europe are so fiercely looking for symptoms of “de-escalation,” it is quite probable that they will take the most recent signs from the Kremlin seriously, and we will see Putin in international meetings more often. He will participate with pleasure because he is not afraid of difficult situations — even though he was a mediocre Soviet spy in the German Democratic Republic, he had to undergo psychological training essential in intelligence work.

Should Putin be invited to the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz in January? This is the main question asked these days in Poland. If the decision were made today, upon reviewing the pros and cons of not inviting Putin, one of the cons would definitely be the label that Europe would attach to Poland after such a gesture.