Superpower Skirmishes

The United States and Russia have accused each other of giving military support to the warring sides in Ukraine. While Washington published satellite photos in which Russian artillery units are seen supposedly firing on Ukrainian government troops on the other side of the Ukrainian border, Moscow demanded information about alleged American advisers serving the Kiev government.

In addition, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cautioned the United States not to supply the Ukrainian army with weapons. Secretary of State John Kerry in return urged Lavrov “to stop the flow of heavy weapons and rocket and artillery fire from Russia into Ukraine, and to begin to contribute to deescalating the conflict.” State Department sources say Kerry refused to accept Lavrov’s denial that heavy weapons deliveries from Russia were furthering the conflict.

According to U.S. government sources, the satellite imagery shows mobile Russian missile launchers that have been used to attack Ukrainian defensive positions on the other side of the border as evidenced by signs visible around the launchers as well as the impact craters seen at target sites. If the photos are genuine it would be the first proof that Russian forces have been actively involved on behalf of the Ukrainian separatists. Until now, it was only certain that the Russian army had trained and supplied weapons to the separatists.

“ . . . It all comes down to how the photos are interpreted”

But whether such photos offer reliable proof is controversial even among experts. A high-ranking former German intelligence official says such photos don’t offer certain proof because they can be interpreted differently. Expert opinion of the four photos released by the U.S. State Department holds they do not offer certain proof that Russia is intervening militarily; they might or they might not.

Skeptics mainly recall then-Secretary of State Colin Powell’s presentation before the U.N. Security Council in February 2003 — shortly before the start of the Iraq War — with which he tried to convince other nations of the threat posed by Saddam Hussein’s arsenal which, according to Powell at the time, amounted to between 100 and 500 tons of chemical weapons.

In addition, Powell claimed Saddam was actively trying to obtain fissionable material in order to construct nuclear weapons and that he was working on a missile program as evidenced by the presence of seven mobile biological weapons laboratories seen underway on Iraqi roads. The presentation was developed over four days by a 30-man team of intelligence service experts. By the end of the second day, Powell had insisted that every conclusion reached had to be supported by a minimum of two sources. He omitted what made no sense and then included falsehoods in his report. He made 28 accusations, none of which were later found to be verifiable.

Among other things, Powell showed a satellite photo of a purported munitions factory in the Iraqi city of Taji. He claimed that chemical weapons were stored in four of the bunkers, a fact he said was revealed by what the photos showed in the near proximity to the bunkers: for example, a truck parked in front of one bunker contained neutralizing agents in case of an accident. Such a decontamination vehicle was proof, he said, that Hussein was still producing chemical weapons.

The Reality Was Totally Dissimilar: This Was a Fireworks Display of Misinformation

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger claimed after the presentation that the charges leveled at Saddam Hussein were thus proved to be irrefutable, but the truth was that Powell’s show, peppered with satellite photos, graphics, diagrams and audio recordings was nothing more than theater that later proved to be a fireworks display of disinformation.

The German intelligence agency Bundesnachrichtendienst or BND hasn’t yet commented on the satellite photos claiming to prove Russia has attacked Ukrainian territory, but internally it hasn’t disputed the U.S. State Department claims. Maybe so, maybe not. The notable thing about the satellite photos is the fact that they weren’t taken by a U.S. government satellite but by the commercial Digital Globe organization. But it’s possible that Washington chose to use imagery from the commercial firm in its public release of the incident and has its own high resolution photos that support its accusations. One reason they may have chosen to do that is to hide the actual state of U.S. surveillance technology from the Russians.

Analysis of such photographs is a complicated process. The BND normally leaves that to military teams that work for the foreign intelligence office. BND President Gerhard Schindler recently said in the weekly “situation” briefing to the chancellor that they had no information about Russian organizations in Ukraine. It is clear, however, that nearly all directions to rebel groups within Ukraine are ordered from Russia. The regional leadership of pro-Russian separatists are generally people unknown in the intelligence community.