Forgettable Elections

So few Americans are interested in the elections that many will not vote. The other problem in mobilizing voters: the elections lack a clear theme.

Governors will be chosen, but the American people do not see this as something important. Never was so much owed by so many to so few: negotiations for the creation of a free trade area in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean that will affect more than 1.4 billion people, the wars in Syria and Iraq, the situation in Ukraine, the future of a post-Castro Cuba, and the reduction of emissions causing the “greenhouse effect,” as well as the kickoff of the run-up to the 2016 presidential election.

All these questions will be affected by the way Americans vote on Tuesday, November 4 in the general elections. The problem is that most Americans are so uninterested in the elections that the vast majority is not going to vote.

Some will not exercise their right because they are not allowed, given that states controlled by Republicans are restricting the voting rights of minority and low-income groups who normally vote Democrat. But the vast majority will not exercise their right to vote because they don’t care to do so. These are elections to be forgotten. In fact, it seems that the public has forgotten them before they have even taken place.

Case in point: 38 million people live in California, 24 million of which can vote. But only 18 million of this group are registered, or will be between now and the elections, to exercise their right. Clearly the expectation is that no more than 8 million people will vote: 25 percent less than in 2010. That is not to say that there is little at stake in these elections: Californians will choose their governor, practically all of the state executive and legislature and the 53 Congressmen who will represent them in the House of Representatives in Washington.

Another key state is Ohio, where voter turnout is not expected to surpass 40 percent in the elections, which will decide the re-election of Governor Ron Kasich and will simultaneously be the starting point of his likely presidential campaign as a Republican candidate in 2016.

The people’s indifference is significant because campaign spending has shot up once again. The Center for Responsive Politics — a Washington-based organization that regulates American political life — estimates that the elections will cost 2.85 billion euros ($3.6 billion).

Seventy-five percent of that sum will be spent by candidates and parties. The other 715 million euros will be spent by organizations outside of politics, which create what are known as “SuperPACs,” that is, “Super Political Action Committees.” Today, there are 1,228 of these organizations that pay for advertising to either attack or defend — the former is more common — the political program of a candidate. They are technically independent of the organizations of each politician and officially support no one. In practice, they are the “fifth column” of every candidate.

Why are Americans so oblivious to these elections?

There are many reasons, one of which is a country that is fed up with its political class. As past Republican candidate John McCain said, “[people] don’t like Republicans and they don’t like Obama.” In other words, they don’t like anybody. The two greatest political phenomena of the last decade have lost clout. Obama has disappointed the Democrats and Independents. The Tea Party has done the same with the Republican conservative wing.

The end result is a void, the rejection of the political class. Tea Party supporter and “number two” Republican in the House of Representatives, Eric Cantor, is not running in this election because he lost the primary in May to an unknown university professor, even more conservative than he, called Dave Brat. Cantor had spent 39 times more on his campaign than Brat, and lost by a whole 12 points. This week, leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, has had to borrow $1.8 million from his own company to take on an almost unknown Democrat, Alison Lundergan Grimes, who is threatening his seat.

There is another obstacle to mobilizing voters: these elections have no clear theme. The state of the economy, education, the health system and the public deficit appear in surveys, almost equally, as the main issues concerning Americans. It is difficult for politicians to create a coherent message with such a disparity of problems, contrary to other elections where there were great political upsets: for example, in 2006, where the war in Iraq was judged, or 2010, which Republicans turned into a catastrophic plebiscite on Barack Obama.

As such, American citizens will barely take in part in elections that will determine their Senators, county sheriffs or justices of the peace. Hysteria surrounding Ebola or the football league are much more interesting topics than choosing your Washington representative.