US & Cuba: Now Comes the Analysis

No one can deny the important historic impact of yesterday’s announcement by President Barack Obama regarding the immediate initiation of procedures to restore relations between the U.S. and Cuba after sustained discussions for several months, thanks to help from Pope Francis and the Canadian government. It’s first class and can be called the gravestone of the Cold War on the American continent.

Meanwhile, there’s a reason for so much general satisfaction about this: It marks the beginning of the end of tensions that started on Oct. 20, 1961 — 54 years ago. The U.S. president admitted the error of the isolation policy maintained since then, and now, through this new policy, plans to achieve “empowerment of the Cuban people.”

The question that needs to be answered as soon as possible in order to avoid exaggerated enthusiasm is what will happen from now on, as well as what did Raul Castro’s regime hand over? It would be naïve to think that the current Cuban president is going to quickly become someone who accepts the criteria and conditions of democracy. It should be known, for example, that changes were negotiated in terms of freedom of the press, the Internet and social networks, and also the political activity of the citizen groups that have opposed [isolationism] and paid a high price, either in prisons or through marginalization.

The reestablishment of relations between the two countries will take time and is not easy, since the funds to create the U.S. Embassy and the diplomatic authorization to open it have to pass through both Congress and the Senate — currently dominated by Republicans who have already begun to criticize President Obama, and who have managed to strike an effective blow by being able to keep the negotiations secret.

Due to previous considerations, it’s too early to try and classify the level of success that this announcement could mean to the Democratic president and to what degree it can influence the upcoming elections. It’s a fact that at this moment an era of considerable importance is beginning, in which the opinions of those who criticize the entirety of the decision, and some or many of its complicated aspects should be recognized.

The Cuban president also needs to understand that the U.S. gesture lets him leave economic isolation behind, but it’s not a political victory in the sense that he could continue to govern the same way his brother Fidel did, and how [Raul] has continued to do so. He’s an old man who should now think of Cuba without Castroism, to be able to take advantage of Washington’s offer and introduce change to the island.

All this doesn’t mean there will be a change in U.S. attitudes; it’s a fact that is positive in and of itself, and it’s being called just as important as the decision made more than half a century ago to act the way that is beginning to change today. The challenges begin now, as they relate to the benefits [the change may manifest] for the Cuban people.