North Korean ICBMs: In Order To Avoid Increasing Tension

Published in Nishinippon Shimbun
(Japan) on 30 November 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephanie Chiu. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
Clearly, North Korea wants to say, “We have the power to attack the American mainland.”

Early on the morning of Nov. 29, North Korea launched a ballistic missile toward the Sea of Japan. The missile flew about 1,000 kilometers (approximately 621 miles), falling within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone, west of the Aomori prefecture. It appears this missile was launched at a lofted trajectory that was higher than usual, reaching a record altitude of over 4,000 kilometers (approximately 2,485 miles).

If it followed a normal trajectory, then it would have exceeded 10,000 kilometers (approximately 6,214 miles), meaning North Korea now possesses an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland – a view that is steadily growing stronger. On the same day the missile was launched, North Korea’s state-controlled media declared that the ICBM test had succeeded, and that “[they] have finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force.”

North Korea’s missile launch is a clear violation of a United Nations Security Council resolution. It’s also a danger that threatens Japanese citizens living within the EEZ, and is absolutely unforgivable.

North Korea hasn’t launched a missile since Sept. 15. There was a variety of theories on what North Korea was planning when it suspended nuclear tests and missile launches for two months. There were hints that President Trump might have held talks with North Korea and that China sent a special envoy to North Korea as well.

However, it seems that in the end, despite pressure from the international community and the sanctions imposed on North Korea, Kim Jong Un’s regime has once again rushed headlong into completing its nuclear and missile technology. In other words, it had no intention of controlling itself.

It’s unclear whether North Korea has established the means to create vehicles capable of re-entry, but seeing as how it has shown that it has the ability to cross the distance and attack the U.S. mainland, the United States’ wariness toward North Korea will increase all the more. With regard to the missile launch, President Trump has stated that “[the U.S.] take[s] it very seriously.”

Moving forward, the U.S. will most likely strengthen its military pressure and economic sanctions. There’s a fear that both the U.S. and North Korea will intimidate and provoke one another, escalating the tension to a dangerous level.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said that the U.S. “seek[s] a peaceful solution to this.” With this stalemate hanging in the air, there is no choice but to continue work on cooperation among Japan, the U.S. and South Korea; strengthening the net of encirclement that China and Russia have been dragged into, and drawing North Korea into negotiations.


北朝鮮ICBM 緊張の増幅を避けるには

「米国本土を攻撃する能力がある」-そう誇示したいのだろう。

 北朝鮮が29日未明、日本海に向けて弾道ミサイル1発を発射した。ミサイルは約千キロ飛び、青森県西方の日本の排他的経済水域(EEZ)内に落下した。通常より高く打ち上げる「ロフテッド軌道」を採用したとみられ、到達高度は過去最高の4千キロ超となった。

 通常軌道なら1万キロを超え、米国本土を射程に入れる大陸間弾道ミサイル(ICBM)の飛距離を獲得した、との見方が強まっている。北朝鮮の国営メディアは同日、ICBMの発射実験に成功したとする政府声明を発表し、「国家核戦力完成」を宣言した。

 北朝鮮のミサイル発射は国連安全保障理事会決議に明白に違反する。EEZ内で活動する日本国民にも危険を及ぼす暴挙であり、断じて許されない。

 北朝鮮のミサイル発射は9月15日以来だ。核実験やミサイル発射を2カ月余り中断した北朝鮮の意図についてはさまざまな臆測があった。この間、トランプ米大統領は対話の可能性を示唆し、中国は北朝鮮に特使を派遣した。

 しかし結局のところ、国際社会の圧力や制裁下においても、核・ミサイル技術の完成を遮二無二目指す金正恩政権の姿勢を改めて明確にしたといえる。自制の意思などなかった-ということだ。

 北朝鮮がミサイル弾頭の再突入技術を確立させているかは不明だが、飛距離では米本土への攻撃能力を示したことで、米国の北朝鮮への警戒感は一層強まる。トランプ大統領は発射を受け「深刻にとらえている」と語った。

 米国は今後さらに軍事的圧力や経済制裁を強化するだろう。米国と北朝鮮が互いに威嚇や挑発を繰り出し、緊張がエスカレートする危険な局面に入る恐れもある。

 ティラーソン米国務長官は「外交は実行可能だ。平和的な道筋を探る」と述べた。手詰まり感は漂うものの、日米韓3国が連携して中国、ロシアも巻き込んだ包囲網を強化し、北朝鮮を交渉の場に引き出す努力を続けるしかない。
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