US-North Korea Summit Hints Complete Denuclearization Is Possible

“North Korea is indicating its willingness to move forward on complete denuclearization without the conditions that Washington cannot accept, including the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the southern half of the Korean Peninsula,” South Korean President Moon Jae-In said during a lunch meeting with top executives from news outlets in South Korea on April 19, 2018, after indicating, “all the North demands is the end of hostile policies against it and security guarantees.”

“I think it would not be too difficult in inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korean summits to reach a framework agreement on denuclearization, a peace regime on the peninsula, the normalization of the relations between Washington and Pyongyang, and economic aid to North Korea,” President Moon commented, hinting that the three countries have found some common ground in the discussion about possible denuclearization and security guarantees.

This is not the first time that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un mentioned relinquishing its nuclear weapons program. He has publicly raised the issue of denuclearization multiple times, only to be greeted with a wave of skepticism. Suspicion has grown in America and among conservatives in South Korea that the reclusive regime would try to settle for a freeze or nonproliferation, claiming that North Korea is a nuclear power. Given the recalcitrant regime’s absolute dependence on its nuclear weapons, it would be difficult to believe Pyongyang’s sincerity about curbing its nuclear program.

The difference in how the U.S. and North Korea understand denuclearization has been another sticking point. While Washington calls for the “complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement” of the North’s nuclear weapons program, Pyongyang has pushed for “phased, synchronized steps” toward denuclearization. It was widely predicted that it would be uncertain whether the most isolated regime would accept a U.S. plan to complete denuclearization within a short span of time, perhaps a year. However, if what Moon delivered represent Pyongyang’s true intentions, concerns about denuclearization, for the most part, are likely to be resolved.

There is another positive signal: Pyongyang has not raised its demand for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea. The North has long claimed that its nuclear weapons program has been developed against hostile policies of its Western adversary, pinpointing American military presence across the border as being at the center of them. For the U.S., however, its presence in the South means more than that: It is tied to Washington’s strategic interests in checking China. Therefore, it is unlikely that the condition requiring that American troops be withdrawn from the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, if it is put on the table even after denuclearization, will be accepted by Washington. In this regard, the North’s change of heart on the American military presence in the South serves as a sort of demonstration of the Kim regime’s sincerity regarding denuclearization. Accordingly, the prospects for the success of inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea summits look hopeful.

Nevertheless, it is important to understand that North Korea’s sudden diplomatic outreach is a prelude to potential challenges. The past is littered with inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea deals that were struck with difficulty and eventually fell through as problems arose over the course of their implementation. The U.S. and the North need to find a balance between the costs and benefits involved in achieving their respective goals of denuclearization and security guarantees. It will also be necessary to hammer out and coordinate realistic details. The two adversaries should not let this rare opportunity to realize denuclearization and to establish peace in the Korean Peninsula go to waste.