Global Leadership in Uncertain Times

As 2020 begins, we find a world in turmoil, with compelling signs of discontent in different regions and countries, and a marked crisis in global leadership.

Gallup International conducted its most recent End of Year poll this past November based on 50,261 interviews across 50 nations and representing nearly two-thirds of the world population. The data involved opinions about 12 government leaders or heads of State: Germany, France, Great Britain, China, India, Israel, Turkey, Russia, the United States, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and, also, the leader of the Catholic Church. The results were similar to last year.

First, Pope Francis is once again the most highly regarded leader in the world, being the only one among the 13 leaders in the poll with a majority of 53%, giving him a favorable rating, versus 23% giving an unfavorable rating and 24% who did not know or did not answer. Among the 50 countries polled, there were only six where Pope Frances received more unfavorable ratings than favorable: Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Serbia, Palestine and Pakistan. Five of those have a majority Muslim population.

The rest of the countries gave him a predominantly favorable rating.

Pope Francis received a majority of favorable ratings among respondents in the European Union, with an average of 64%, as well as 66% in Latin America, 51% in Africa, 55% in the U.S. and 51% in East Asia. The fact that the head of the Catholic Church evokes a positive image for half the population of Africa and Eastern Asia confirms his position as a global leader, even among non-Catholics.

He is followed by Angela Merkel, the best head of government with a 46% favorable rating and 31% unfavorable rating. French President Emmanuel Macron is in third place with a 40% positive rating and a 33% negative rating.

These are three leaders with whom the president of Argentina met in February this year on his European tour.

It should be noted that the three leaders with the most positive image in the world are not having the best of times. The Pope was unsuccessful in gaining approval from priests in the Amazon for the ordination of married men; Merkel is in the middle of her worst political crisis since she took office because her party allied itself with an ultra-right party in the German state of Thuringia; and Macron is confronting the most prolonged strike in the history of his country.

In spite of this, they are the only three leaders in the poll with a net positive score (the difference between positive and negative percentages): the Pope +30, the German chancellor +15 and the French president +7.

The other 10 government leaders had negative scores: Indian Prime Minister Modi -2, Boris Johnson -8, Turkish President Erdogan -10, Putin -12, Xi Jinping -12, the King of Saudi Arabia -12, [Brazilian President] Bolsonaro -14, [Iranian President] Rouhani -18, [Israeli President] Netanyahu -20, [President] Trump -27.

The leaders of the two most powerful countries in Eurasia — from the perspective of military strategy — have a more positive image than the U.S. president, who has the least positive image of the 13 leaders in the poll. So, the one with the most favorable image is the spiritual leader of the West, and the one with the worst image is the leader of the most important military power in this part of the world.

Russian President Vladimir Putin received a 37% favorable rating and a 48% negative rating. The regions where Putin is regarded more highly, according to favorable ratings, are Africa (54%) and Western Asia (48%). Opinions are divided in Russia, with 32% favorable and 33% unfavorable. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Putin has a 52% negative rating and only 6% positive, which can be explained by both the legacy of the Cold War and the current strategic dispute between the countries.

Once again, perhaps the most significant data is that which shows President Trump with the most unfavorable rating of all the leaders included in the poll. This was also true last year. On the global level, 58% of respondents gave him an unfavorable rating and 31% gave him a favorable rating. It is even worse in Western Europe, with unfavorable ratings at 78%, and in the Middle East, with 85% unfavorable ratings.

There were only seven countries among the 50 that gave Trump a majority positive rating: Vietnam, Nigeria, Albania, Philippines, Azerbaijan, Georgia, India and Armenia. The countries where the President of the United States had the most negative ratings were: Jordan, Germany, Syria, Finland, Austria, Lebanon, Spain, Palestine, Korea, Ireland, France and Mexico, where between 8 and 9 out of 10 have negative opinions about the U.S. president.

Furthermore, respondents were critical of world powers. The majority of the global population maintains that U.S. international policies destabilize the world. (54%, while 31% think that they stabilize the world.) Also, 49% think that Russia destabilizes the world, versus 32% saying that it stabilizes, and there is criticism of China’s policies, although somewhat less (43% destabilizing versus 34% stabilizing).

The European Union is the only world power that is well-regarded, with 50% thinking that its actions and policies stabilize the world versus 32% that think the opposite. In an environment of increasing global confrontation and division, Europe appears to be a focus of hope, although it is in a difficult situation that requires unity among its citizens and leaders. Global society is complex, even contradictory. As a whole, it seeks leadership that is characterized by moderation and balance.