Is Hillary Clinton the Democrats’ Claudia Roth?

Hillary Clinton has ended Barack Obama’s 12 state winning streak. Yet, her success could lead to a real test for the Democrats. The most loyal supporters of the two rivals could actually, out of wounded pride, stay at home during the November presidential election.

Is Hillary Clinton the Claudia Roth of the Democrats, or is she their John McCain? “We’re going all the way,” she said in Ohio, which sounded a lot like “to the convention, to victory or to the bitter end.” Bill Clinton was already on the way to Wyoming, where the Democrats would vote for his wife or Barack Obama on Saturday.

Hillary Clinton has ended Barack Obama’s 12 state winning streak. The next elections, in Rhode Island, and in the two large states, Texas and Ohio, all went to her in the popular votes. With them, Clinton has won almost all of the large states, where she had been evenly matched and competitive with Obama – New York, California, Texas, and Ohio. Only Missouri barely went to Obama. In Ohio, she did hold together her coalition of women, low-income earners, and senior citizens, which gave her the edge. She also picked up independents.

Warnings of a critical test for the Democrats are only increasing. Exit polls in Ohio and Texas caused many TV commentators to come to a realization which has been worrying party leaders for some time. The most loyal supporters of both rivals – blacks for Obama, women over 55 for Clinton – could actually, out of wounded pride, stay at home during the November 4th presidential election. George W. Bush saw what that can mean in the 2000 election. In Florida, religious conservatives stayed away from the voting booths in large numbers because Bush was too liberal for them. If just a few more had stayed away, Bush would have lost the election.

Barack Obama called Hillary Clinton this evening. He did so before the final result in Texas was declared, but after Clinton’s victory speech in Ohio. His staff mentioned his call in passing to MSNBC. Whatever it was all about, the general public will probably soon find out. Clinton’s closest confidants had likewise floated the idea of Obama as Clinton’s vice presidential candidate on a local New York TV station. Obama did not publicly show any interest in it. On the other hand, such contacts and offers are precisely calculated, and that’s why they are signs that both rivals are not losing sight of the risks in their fascinating contest.

Counting the delegates which both candidates won tonight in the four states Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island will last into the night, perhaps even longer. The Democrats allocate delegates according to the percentage of the votes for each candidate. In Texas, they use an even more complicated system. One fact is certain: Hillary Clinton is back in the ring. Just like when John McCain had been declared politically dead, serious management mistakes were to blame for his problems. To a lesser extent, Clinton was saved by her own performance rather than by a major error on Obama’s part.

Shortly before the Ohio primary, Obama’s economic advisor told the Canadian General Consul in Chicago that his demand to renegotiate the NAFTA free trade zone agreement with Mexico and Canada should not be taken very seriously. It was just campaign talk, but the comment was picked up somehow by the media. NAFTA is a major issue in Ohio. Instead of firing his advisor, Obama accused the media of the false report and retained his advisor. Because of this, he made sure that the issue would be discussed in detail for days in Ohio. Many voters only heard doubletalk from Obama – Clinton hammered the message home to the people. Obama’s best quality, great honest oratory, suddenly appeared to be nothing more than smooth talk for many voters.

Now it’s up to Obama to put tonight’s setback behind him. He has the opportunity to do so in Wyoming and in Mississippi next Tuesday. But today Clinton made her way onto six morning TV shows to reinforce her new political momentum. She is looking to Pennsylvania on April 22, which is similar to Ohio politically and demographically, and where the very popular governor is on her side. This marathon of two contestants continues to be watched by millions of breathless spectators.