At the Start of a New Year, America Prepares To Move on From Being an Embarrassment

Published in The Sankei News
(Japan) on 1 January 2021
by Takubo Tadae, professor emeritus at Kyorin University (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by D Baker. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
After an acrimonious presidential election, the Joe Biden administration is set to take over power in the United States. There have been no real policy announcements as yet, and I realize that criticizing appointees to key positions on their name alone, especially when they have not yet got approval from the Senate, is premature. That said, even the smallest changes in America affect Japan directly and indirectly, and as such, I cannot help but feel anxious about the next U.S. administration.

Anxiety about the Next U.S. Administration

One concern is the polarization of public opinion. Seventy-four million votes were cast for Donald Trump — an incredible number. It indicates that the incoming administration is facing a difficult situation, and must allocate a significant amount of time and effort cooperating with others and unifying the country.

Another concern is that the ruling Democratic Party is divided into left-wing, moderate and conservative factions, and even reconciling differences within the party is not considered a simple task. The left submitted their own list of recommended candidates for positions within the incoming administration. Former Secretary of Defense Michèle Flournoy, who was considered by many to be appropriate for the role of deputy secretary of defense in the Biden administration, was passed over in favor of former commander of the U.S. Central Command Lloyd Austin, an African American. The left took issue with the fact that a think tank co-founded by Flournoy has received financial support from the arms industry.

Of course, General Austin would be very capable even as a politician, though in announcing Austin's name as an appointee, Biden made no mention of either the Indo-Pacific or China. It gives the strong impression that Biden is courting domestic appeal by establishing an administration that is overly concerned with respecting diversity, as he pledged to do, rather than choosing whichever person is required to deal with the current military situation. The appointment of a female vice president is a brilliant achievement that inspires much emotion in the American people, though is it not also liable to incite panic if something were to happen to the president?

In the Cold War, America was fearless as a democratic nation and a leader in liberalism. Perhaps looking to regain the role he held at the time, in the March/April 2020 edition of the magazine Foreign Affairs, Biden pledged, “During my first year in office, the United States will organize and host a global Summit for Democracy to renew the spirit and shared purpose of the nations of the free world.”

A Union of Democratic Nations Under Threat

What Biden stresses is his determination to return the U.S. to world leader status. “This is not a moment for fear. This is the time to tap the strength and audacity that took us to victory in two world wars and brought down the Iron Curtain,” he states.

What is that power and courage for? To restore the dignity of the United States. Biden has made clear his aim of taking on the “special challenge” of China. It may indeed be a special challenge, as, for its own benefit, China pumps subsidies into its own state-run businesses that steal technology and intellectual property rights from American companies and the United States.

Biden's stance on China differs to that of the Trump administration, and is considerably weaker. The details of the Summit for Democracy will surely be decided in due course, and there is no doubt that establishing a global organization to confront authoritarian countries will become a major focus in international politics in the future. How difficult this is firstly depends on how democratic countries are defined. President of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass and others have asked specifically how the Philippines, Turkey, Poland and Hungary should be classified.

Republican Senator John McCain, who went up against Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, was a fierce critic of China, and in his election campaign called for an international organization separate to the United Nations, a so-called “League of Democracies.” Liberals in America ridiculed McCain's idea as outdated Cold War thinking, but the reason for it was clear.

Should Japan Continue its Indifference?

McCain argued that NATO countries such as Canada, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, which fought together with the U.S. in Afghanistan, in addition to the Coalition of the Willing, which included Australia, Japan and South Korea, as well as India, Brazil, South Africa and Israel, should remain in a partnership and go on to become the League of Democracies. It cannot be overlooked that the presence of national armed forces willing to shed blood to protect democracy was a key criteria.

The frameworks created primarily by the United States and United Kingdom after World War II to support and secure national security, finance, trade, health and sanitation, the environment and so on, i.e. the United Nations, NATO, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement, have become conspicuously dysfunctional. As the standings of countries have changed over the 75 years since the end of the war, naturally so has the framework for maintaining order. China's radical growth and America's relative decline are among the changes that have happened internationally. Will Biden's administration be able to surmount these large obstacles?

Despite being an ally to the United States, Japan has remained indifferent to changes on the international stage, has made no changes to its constitution, and has also postponed a decision on whether or not it should acquire the capacity to strike enemy bases. At this rate, Japan would probably be too embarrassed to participate in a League of Democracies.


年頭にあたり 「恥ずかしくない国」への覚悟を 杏林大学名誉教授・田久保忠衛


揉(も)めに揉めた大統領選挙の揚げ句、米国にバイデン次期政権が誕生する。諸政策の発表はこれからだし、主要閣僚人事などは指名だけで上院の承認も済んでいない段階で論評するのは時期尚早であるとは分かっている。が、この国の一挙手一投足が日本に直接、間接の影響力を及ぼすことを考えると、米政権の今後に一抹の不安を感じないわけにはいかない。

 ≪米国次期政権への不安≫

 一つは、国論の二分だ。7400万票という巨大な票数がトランプ大統領に投じられたという事実は、新政権がかなりの精力と時間を国内の「統一」「協力」に充当しなければならない難局に直面していることを物語っている。

 二つは、与党の民主党が左派、穏健、右派に分かれ、党内の意見調整だけでも容易ではないとみられている点だ。現に左派は指名人事に際して独自の候補リストを政権移行チームに提出していたし、国防長官としては大方が妥当と考えていた、ミシェル・フロノイ元国防次官は退けられ、黒人のロイド・オースティン元中央軍司令官が指名された。左派はフロノイ女史が創始者の一人として名を連ねたシンクタンクが軍需産業の資金援助を受けていると問題視した。

 もちろんオースティン将軍は政治家としても立派なのであろうが、指名発表で「インド太平洋」も「中国」もバイデン氏の口を衝(つ)いて出なかった。現在の軍事情勢に対応するにはいかなる人物を充てるかよりも、公約通り多様性を十二分に尊重した政権であるとのアピールを国内に向けている印象が強い。女性の副大統領指名は米国民を沸かせる快挙ではあるが、大統領に万一の事態が生じたとき慌てるような結果にならないか。

 冷戦時の米国は自由主義、民主主義国家の指導者として颯爽(さっそう)としていた。当時の役割を取り戻そうと考えているのか、バイデン氏はフォーリン・アフェアーズ2020年3・4月号に「大統領就任の1年以内に、米国は自由世界諸国の精神と共通の目標再考のため、世界『民主主義首脳会議』を組織し、主催国になる」と公約した。

 ≪問われる民主主義国の結束≫

 ここで彼が強調しているのは米国が再び世界の指導国家になるとの決意であり、「いまは恐れている時期ではない。二つの世界大戦に勝利を収め、鉄のカーテンを打倒した力と勇気を奮い起こすときだ」とまで述べた。

 何のための力と勇気か。米国が威信を回復するためであり、極(ごく)短くではあるが「中国の特別の挑戦」に対抗するとの目的を明らかにしている。中国は米国および米企業から技術や知的財産権を奪い自国の国営企業に補助金を注ぎ込み、有利な立場になるから「特別な挑戦」というのであろう。


 中国に対する姿勢はトランプ政権とはかなり違って弱い。民主主義首脳会議の内容は追々(おいおい)決まってくるだろうが、権威主義的な国々に対抗する意味での世界的規模の組織はこれからの国際政治の大きな焦点になることだけは間違いあるまい。これがいかに難業であるかは先(ま)ず第一歩の民主主義国の定義いかんにある。米外交問題評議会のリチャード・ハース氏などはフィリピン、トルコ、ポーランド、ハンガリーの具体名を挙げてこれらの国々はどちらに分類すればいいのかと問うている。

 2008年大統領選でオバマ氏と戦った共和党のジョン・マケイン上院議員は強烈な中国批判者で、選挙キャンペーンで国連とは別の国際機関として「民主主義国連盟」の創設を唱えた。米国内リベラル派はマケイン構想を冷戦型の旧式発想だとせせら笑っていたが、筋道ははっきりしていた。

 ≪日本は「無関心」でいいか≫

 アフガニスタンで米軍とともに銃を握って戦ったカナダ、オランダ、英国、フランス、ドイツ、イタリア、スペインなどのNATO(北大西洋条約機構)軍と、オーストラリア、日本、韓国などを有志連合とし、そこにインド、ブラジル、南アフリカ、イスラエルなどを加え、そのまま民主主義国連盟にしてはどうか、とマケイン氏は説いた。血をもって民主主義を守る意思を示す国軍の有無が重要な基準になっていることは見逃せない。

 戦後米英両国が中心になってつくり上げた安全保障、金融、貿易、保健・衛生、地球環境などの安全を支える枠組み、つまり国連、NATO、国際通貨基金(IMF)、世界貿易機関(WTO)、世界保健機関(WHO)、パリ協定などは機能不全が目立ってきた。戦後75年に各国の国力のバランスが変われば当然秩序維持の枠組みも変化する。中国の急激な成長と米国の相対的衰退も国際的変化の一つである。バイデン政権はこの大波を切り抜けるか。

 同盟国の日本は国際情勢の変化には無関心、憲法改正もはかどらず、「敵基地攻撃能力」保有の判断も先送りした。これでは恥ずかしくて民主主義首脳会議には出席できないだろう。
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