China in Obama’s Eyes

Washington has opted to emphasize convergence over divergence.

Diverse are the factors that untie and separate the great powers of the 21st century: the U.S. and China. What unites them is obvious and can easily be enumerated. Bilateral annual trade between them is valued at 285 million dollars. There is also the fact that the U.S. is China’s premier export market and China is the U.S.’s fourth. They cooperate on foreign policy issues from the fight against terrorism to issues involving North Korea. The massive acquisition of U.S. treasury notes by Beijing has prevented a major drop in the value of the dollar in spite of an important deficit in the current U.S. account.

Along with the elements of convergence exist important elements of divergence. First there are perspective differences. China, which in the final years of the 18th century was the richest nation in the world, is seen as on the path to revive its ancient greatness. Feeling past its temporary historic reversal, China assumes its multi-millennial legacy with confidence and assertiveness. On the other hand, the U.S. views China as a relic of a superseded communist past.

Also, there are differences in consumption patterns and their projections for bilateral commerce. While Americans save little and consume much, the Chinese do just the opposite. Said correlation can be translated as power in an unbalanced structural commerce and a growing tendency in which the U.S. will always lose, though it is necessary to bring up that Chinese consumption has grown under the impulse of the five year plan in force.

In the third place, competence of access to prime materials with particular reference to hydrocarbons and minerals is an issue. Chinese consumption of aluminum, copper, nickel, and iron went from 7 percent of the global total in 1990 to 15 percent in 2000. By 2005 it had risen to 20 percent and it is estimated that this will double by the end of this decade. The case of oil speaks for itself. In 2004 China was responsible for 31 percent of the growth of global petroleum demand. According to projections by the Department of Energy and the Ministry of Energy Information (2004), between them the U.S. and China will import around 70 percent of oil consumption for 2025.

In the fourth place, there is the capacity of both countries to affect sensitive geopolitical areas for the other. U.S. military dominance in East Asia is very uncomfortable for China, as is political penetration of Washington in its natural sphere of influence. On the other hand, the growing Chinese economic and commercial penetration in Latin America sounds warning bells in Washington, with calls for the application of the Monroe Doctrine.

Nevertheless, Obama has opted to emphasize convergence over divergence. According to the Spanish specialist in China, Xulio Ríos: “Washington’s actual policy in relation to China seems to have abandoned the hint of open confrontation and is characterized by an uncommon determination to push for cooperation.”