Obama’s Crisis

As if free of guilt since Obama loses popularity every day, Republicans are taking political advantage of the crisis.

According to the polls, Obama’s approval ratings have dropped to approximately 36 percent. That is about 14 points below his highest ratings during the beginning months of the year. At the same time, the number of people who openly disapprove of his administration has risen another 5 percent, to more than 45 percent. This figure is one of the lowest for a U.S. president at this point in his term of office for a long time.

By losing popularity, Obama is also losing his ability to influence members of Congress. He is losing the Democrats, as well as the Republicans that used to support him. Losing the support of the Democrats that today make up the majority in both houses of Congress means losing the necessary number of votes to continue with his ambitious political projects.

Historically, American presidents that have pushed for huge legislative initiatives and changes have enjoyed a boost in popularity. In the American political system, popularity translates into legitimacy for proposing change. This means that Obama is on his own in Washington even more than his predecessor, George W. Bush, was in 2001. It also means that his proposals in Congress have a large possibility of staying in the freezer.

But what scares the Democrats most is that this drop in popularity might result in punishment in the ballot boxes for the intermediate elections to Congress. This fear should make Republicans very happy.

The Democrats already suffered this punishment in the elections for governor in Virginia and New Jersey. In both states the Republicans dominated. The defeat is definitely a result of the uncertainty caused by the economic crisis, which has played into the hands of Republican candidates.

Without a doubt, the drop in popularity for Obama is due to reactions the economic crisis has provoked among the U.S. population. Americans question the effectiveness of the economic measures taken to alleviate the crisis. In particular, they are skeptical of the stimulus package for the financial sector and banks, as well as the automotive industry. Furthermore, the health care reform that is central to Obama’s politics is faced with heavy opposition in Congress.

Americans have short memory spans. They appear to have forgotten that the economic situation is a result of the massive debt incurred by the Bush administration, and that high rates of unemployment were also caused by his time in office.

Also, they forget that the measurements taken by Obama were taken to avoid depression even though they could not divert the economic crisis that had already begun in the last months of the Bush administration.

For Obama and the Democratic party it is essential that the political and economic situations turn themselves around in order to have successful elections in the future.

They need to reduce the level of unemployment and the country needs to see returns in fiscal stimuli. Internationally, they need to convince the world of the effectiveness of their derided actions in Afghanistan.

This economic turn had better happen in time for voters to recognize the administration’s success for the coming year’s fall elections.

If the Democrats lose the elections in the following year, Obama will have a diminished ability to influence Congress and, with this, he will see a diminished possibility to realize the changes that are the base of his political project.

With regard to Mexican immigrants, the promised migratory reform becomes more distant with each passing month.