Shades of the Latin American-US Relationship

It’s possible that the 10th Summit of the Americas, in three or four years’ time, will take place without a Joe Biden or a liberal in the U.S. presidency.

How many of the speeches made last Thursday and Friday in Los Angeles, at the Ninth Summit of the Americas, were aimed at domestic audiences rather than being foreign policy announcements?

And the second question: Would it have been possible if, instead of Joe Biden, a politician who recognizes the importance of dialogue and debate to solve problems democratically, there had been Donald Trump, or one of his supporters?

The conditions of the summit would certainly have been different. And who knows if Latin American and Caribbean countries would have moved within the same margins of dissent they did this time.

Truth be told, it’s within the realm of possibility that the 10th Summit of the Americas, in three or four years’ time, will be held without a Biden or a liberal in the U.S. presidency, and with a conservative or right-winger in the White House instead.

Some in the U.S. believe that Biden is a weak but well-meaning president who can be defied with impunity in both domestic and foreign policy. At least, it seems that way considering his apparently calm response to the Democratic senators who abandoned him in the vote on his economic package, or the tranquility with which he sat and listened to some of his guests’ comments in the summit plenary.

Or the negotiating style that led him to invite seemingly reluctant interlocutors to the White House, such as Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro — who is running for reelection — and Argentine President Alberto Fernández — who will seek reelection next year — who agreed to attend in exchange for their respective visits to Washington and a photo with Biden.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is not up for reelection, but he will undoubtedly find it extremely advantageous to demonstrate that he has a very positive relationship with his American counterpart, especially after all the speculation about the impact of his rhetoric and attitude toward his relationship with Mexico’s main trading partner.

The window of opportunity is brief. The difference is in the relationship with someone like Trump or a Trumpist, who has authoritarian tendencies, and someone like Biden or a Democrat, who seeks to achieve the same results through dialogue and persuasion.

Certainly, as Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard (a presidential candidate himself) said, global conditions have changed and the geopolitical situation is not the same as it was three or four years ago — pre-pandemic, pre-war in Ukraine and before the food, energy and grid crises, combined with the economic problems that are reflected in high inflation.

But the way they are tackled can dramatically change from one U.S. administration to another, from one that believes in diplomacy to one intent on proving that its country is capable of imposing conditions.