Will We Get into a Row with the Russians?

Just how bothered are the Russians by the fact that Romania will host the new American missile detection shield? Or is this, on the contrary, an opportunity for reconciliation? We will find out today, when the Munich Conference on Security Policy begins.

For years this has been the place where Russian leaders could voice their dissatisfaction, where they could shout, wave their arms about and issue warnings. Or threats. And it is highly likely that the “Russian bear” will snarl at Romania. Not because we are a threat, but rather because we are on the U.S.’s side. It is a nightmare for the Kremlin to see that Americans are gaining political influence, extending NATO and building military bases and strategic installations in Eastern Europe.

We already know how Russia reacted when the Czech Republic and Poland became the first two countries that agreed to host the old type of shield, the one that George W. Bush had promoted. The Russians had actually announced their intention to aim tens of nuclear weapons at our Central European allies. Not to mention the fact that Putin and Medvedev are not shy when it comes to counterattacking with gas prices, sanctions against the companies and citizens of the states that provoke them, and various other techniques of harassment. The only reason Russia would not dare to treat us like they have treated Georgia and the Ukraine is that we are members of the most powerful political-military alliance in the world — NATO.

So what are we going to do about Russia?

The Russians, on the other hand, are afraid. They fear that their interests might be threatened. They fear that, even though the anti-missile shield means nothing in comparison to their huge arsenal, once it is developed, it could become troublesome. They fear that they will no longer be able to blackmail the U.S. on the matter of missiles and the American nuclear program. They fear that they might seem weak in the eyes of their citizens unless they react against the establishment of U.S. defense infrastructures near Russian borders.

If the U.S. has obtained Russia’s agreement before making the move announced by President Băsescu, things are going great. In this case, the Russians will probably collaborate with us on the anti-missile shield themselves. Which would mean that Russia and America are “friends” again. We could, in turn, relieve some of the tension in our relations with Moscow with regard to issues such as gas prices, economic relations or Moldova.

Another possibility is that the anti-missile shield will be built in such a way that the radar will not be aimed at Russia. This would be reasonable for all parties involved. However, if this is not the case and the Americans have tried to defy the Russians by building the project against their wishes, we are going to get into trouble. And Russia will not try to persuade us, but will frighten us.

The last possibility is, by far, the most awkward for us. As a matter of fact, it is highly possible that the U.S. has used this gambit in order to scare the Russians, who could, in turn, pressure Iran. Should Russia convince Iran to drop their nuclear program, the shield would be redundant. This is a plausible possibility.