In Anticipation of War!

Official Arab circles believe that the year will not pass without war erupting in the region again and the month will not go by without Iran facing a new set of sanctions. This belief is based on evidence, such as the movement of troops and of U.S. naval units in the Atlantic in addition to the announcement of the deployment of interceptor missiles in four Gulf Arab states and Israeli threats of war that extend to first to Lebanon and then to Syria.

The official circles see the movement of such forces as expensive and as something that cannot be sustained by this country for long periods of time; thus it factors into the framework of preparations for war. The deployment of interceptor missiles is an advance preparation to counter the anticipated Iranian reaction if its nuclear installations were to suffer a military strike. As for the Israeli threats to Lebanon and Syria, they are geared towards frightening the two countries into realizing their support for Iran in the upcoming war will be a heavy price to pay.

These Arab sources do not rule out that all these movements, declarations and threats are directed at exerting considerable pressure on Iran to accept the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) proposal. This prompted the Iranians to announce their agreement to this plan while asserting that Iran retains the right to determine the amount of uranium it sends abroad for enrichment. These circles are not discounting a U.S. and Western readiness for war if continuing pressure fails to achieve the intended goal and Iran continued to sidestep the issue of uranium enrichment as it has been doing over the past few months.

These circles believe that the U.S. administration may have to — despite Washington’s involvement in Afghanistan — enter into a new war, especially with the upcoming Congressional elections. There isn’t a better war than one against an outside enemy on which the Democratic Party can capitalize in order to garner more support for the current administration.

If the U.S. administration were to listen to the voice of reason and the voices of opponents to the war, whether domestically or within this region, speaking out against the outbreak of a new war, they are discounting that the Israeli government would be that voice. They fear that the Israeli government would risk launching a military strike against Iranian nuclear installations with the purpose of having Washington get mired in a new war in the region, thus making it incapable of holding serious discussions in establishing a Palestinian state. In other words, the war as seen by these sources is inevitable, whether or not the U.S. agrees, since the Israelis fear the Iranian nuclear program to a large degree. Moreover, the war will bring the Israelis many benefits, signified by America turning its back on the Palestinian issue. Besides, they realize that the U.S. will not allow any threats to Israel’s security and will not tolerate any attacks by Iran, Lebanon, Hamas or even Syria.

Therefore, these official Arab circles see that an enormous Arab effort needs to be dedicated towards preventing this war that is in the planning stages. If this war breaks out, Arabs will pay the dearest price, not the Iranians or the Israelis who will go to war or even the Americans who could get embroiled in this war. If this war were to break out, Arab land, whether in the Gulf or Lebanon or Gaza, will be its theater. This will will deter investment and tourism in the region, which would threaten its economies that are still recovering from the effects of the powerful global economic crisis. Arabs paid the price for every war that this region has witnessed. Up until now, southern Lebanon has not been rebuilt, nor has Beirut’s southern suburb, nor has Gaza and nor has Iraq. Furthermore, war is always tied in with terrorism, which finds fertile ground to grow, develop and spread throughout the region as a result.

These official Arab circles realize that their effort to prevent the war and protect the region from it needs to be directed toward America and Iran at the same time: prodding the U.S. to steer in the direction of negotiations and dialogue to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue while pressing Iran to make changes in its approach to managing this situation and to agree to the IAEA’s enriched uranium plan in order to thwart pretexts of war that the West has. The question remains: are Arabs capable of committing to this needed effort to prevent the war? Or are they incapable and perhaps unconvinced that the war is coming?