America on the Offensive: Retreat or a New Vietnam?

The Americans cannot win the war in Afghanistan. They know this. Instead, they are trying hard not to lose the war. The extensive military operation that American forces started three days ago, together with their NATO allies and the Afghan army, serves a specific purpose: to force Taliban militants into accepting a negotiated compromise, i.e. a political solution.

If they succeed, the U.S. will be able to pull back from this battlefield, which has cost the American people their time, energy and huge amounts of money. Most importantly, it has cost them thousands of lives. If they fail, Afghanistan will become “Obama’s Vietnam.”

Why Can’t They Win?

The U.S. is fighting against an invisible enemy. An enemy that sets up ambushes, plants makeshift bombs on highways or uses suicide attackers who blow themselves up without batting an eyelash and then vanishes. The U.S. did not expect things to be so difficult when it invaded Afghanistan in 2001.

The Islamic Taliban regime had been ousted within a few weeks. Al-Qaeda and bin Laden, who had orchestrated the 9/11 attacks and whom the Taliban had harbored, were decimated and scattered. Since then, many things have changed. First, Bush himself gave radical Islamists the best gift possible: he invaded Iraq, weakening the U.S.’s ability to fight threats. The corruption and inefficiency of the Afghan government also proved helpful for religious extremists. Slowly but surely, the Taliban gained control of approximately a third of the country.

This was in spite of the fact that the U.S. was still sending soldiers, and their allies, whether they were NATO members or not, continued to increase their number of troops as well. Their efforts, however, remained insufficient. The Taliban and other extremist groups, guided by a radical interpretation of Islam, are getting stronger and stronger, financed by drug trafficking and protected by secure refuge places in the tribal areas of neighboring Pakistan. Some of the most important security analysts and military commanders have reached the conclusion that the insurgency cannot be destroyed. It can be beaten, surrounded or diminished, but it cannot be extinguished completely.

Not even NATO has the necessary resources to achieve this, as the Afghan landscape protects the Islamists, and the ultra-conservative mentality of the population keeps their cause alive, not to mention the cultural differences, the accidental NATO attacks against civilians and the fact that many Afghans perceive coalition forces as a threat.

What Would a Quick Retreat Mean?

The Americans do not want to endlessly prolong the war in Afghanistan. They want to withdraw. U.S. public opinion is already against the war. American leaders are also in favor of the withdrawal. They are also concerned with the consequences. It would be suicidal to pull out now, when the Afghan government and army are incapable of taking over.

The Taliban would immediately take charge and become America’s greatest enemy. They would have the bases necessary for attacking the U.S., and they would continue to harbor al-Qaeda. Beyond the fact that the U.S. would tarnish its superpower image, something which would encourage military attacks from all extremist groups, lies one more problem: a state led by radicals would try to obtain a nuclear weapon. This is the most terrible threat that the U.S. national security could face.

How Will They Put the Lessons of Vietnam Into Practice?

It is certain that the Americans want to put the two lessons learned during the Vietnam War into practice. Firstly, they do not want to extend the war forever. Secondly, they want to find a political solution to the war. This time, the U.S. does not want to leave its enemies in charge of a region from where they could attack or in charge of massive armed forces. In other words, they do not want to leave the job half done.

The Americans want to corner Islamic militants and beat them, even though they will not be able to defeat them completely. Then, they want to invite the “moderate Taliban” to participate in the new Afghan government.

The first part is easy. Islamists do not have the military power to fight off the American and European troops. The second part, however, is the most difficult task that the U.S. has undertaken abroad. All in all, “Uncle Sam” will fight with all his might. America’s future as a superpower and the security of the entire planet are at stake.