The Same Genocide Movie Is Starting to Run Again…

We have been watching the same movie with the same scenario for as long as I can remember. The only difference is that the intensity level rises every single year.

Throughout the year, Washington and Ankara go arm in arm, and often in each other’s arms; however, the storm clouds always gather around as the month of March nears. The storm turns into a whirlwind as April begins. The reason for this is that the Armenians presented the genocide rough draft to the U.S. congressional panel. Committees take action, and both capitals exchange remarks full of threats and hidden blackmail, as immensely offensive weeks pass by.

As happened yesterday, the congressional panel had a vote regarding the resolution and, if it passes, the draft will reach the House of Representatives and the quarrel will get more intense. This hustle and bustle usually ends with Washington keeping an eye on Ankara.

However, on this timeline, Ankara remains obligated to Washington. Without realizing it, in the aftermath of the passing of the genocide resolution, Ankara reaches the point of making concessions with regard to issues that are not contained within the resolution. In summary, during these days, Turkish-American relations are gratuitously harmed. Afterward, both sides forget everything and get back on the road as if nothing transpired. In the past, this incident, which is now expected to take place around the same time each year, was bypassed without serious wounds to Turkish-American relations.

The situation has changed over the last few years. The Armenians, benefiting from the support of international public opinion, are fiercely pressuring Washington. Washington’s resistance to the Armenians diminishes with each passing day. It has become difficult for Ankara to pull through. The complexity of the situation this time around is also because of Obama. He reassured the Armenians as he was about to take office by acknowledging the genocide. In order to step back from his assurance and not loose Turkish support, Obama visited Ankara and launched the protocol process with Armenia. However, that did not work. What took place yesterday is an encore of the genocide movie. However, let’s not forget that this movie will never stop being played.

The repression will even escalate in the near term. If we cannot change the situation, the U.S. House of Representatives will pass the genocide bill. Afterward, we will be in a pickle of a mess. The best way is to be realistic and to ensure that the protocol signed with Armenia is implemented. We should also find ways to persuade Baku [the capital of Azerbaijan]. Let’s communicate with our Azeri brothers about the fact that damaged Turkish-American relations will not benefit anyone.

The U.S. May Give Up Its Position in Turkey to Russia

There are relations that really dazzle on paper. The luster shines even further, especially if the U.S. is on one side of the relationship. Not every capital gets to form a “strategic partnership” with the world’s only superpower.

Turkish-American relations are different, colorful and intense. A superpower that contains such effective and different mechanisms enchants you. Your president getting a pat on the back at the White House makes you proud. That magnificent military power makes you dizzy. At that point, even though it does not reflect reality, you really enjoy the phrase “strategic partnership.”

However, there is a flip side to the coin. You take a deep look into this bond and ask yourself, “How much does this relationship satisfy me?” In other words, you take a look into trade relations with the U.S. Then you realize that, despite all the commotion and zest, the business volume with the richest country in the world does not exceed $15 billion. A fairly small amount for Turkey, which has a trading volume of $100 billion…

You take a look at your immediate neighbor, Russia, with whom you have a trading volume of over $35 billion — an amount that is soon expected to reach $50 billion — and then you wonder, “which country is more valuable and is a true partner?” The question of “which partnership is more permanent, the one that stays on paper with an empty ‘strategic partnership’ slogan, or the one that will reach $50-100 billion?” comes to mind.

I am not making a value comparison here between the U.S. and Russia. Naturally, there are major differences between Russia’s up-and-down policies and the U.S.’s stable approach. However, attention needs to be directed to the tangibles as well. The $15 billion Turkish-American trading volume may one day reach $50 billion, but can be overshadowed by the Turkish-Russian trade that provides 70 percent of our energy demand.

This status quo is the biggest threat to Turkish-American relations in the long term. President Obama must be well aware of the situation since he ordered the formation of a special study group to concentrate on trade relations. However, there is no substantial improvement yet. We may say that relations will slog on in the future because of the impression that Washington sets the Turkish public opinion aside with regard to the extremely emotional Armenian genocide case and does not show sufficient support for the removal of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) from northern Iraq.

The United States keeps glorifying the importance of our relations and pats us on the back, but it is time to see certain things in action. Otherwise, one day, we will find Russia closer to us, even though it may not be tagged as a “strategic partnership.”