America Will Force the Kremlin to Play by its Rules

[Translator’s note: Subtitle was used as the main title for the translation. The original title is, “No PROblem, or Nail on Glass.” The first part is a pun on antiballistic missile (ABM), which in Russian is abbreviated as ПРО (pronounced “pro”). The second part is a reference to an annoying noise, similar to scraping fingernails on a blackboard.]

When (or whether) the START-2 treaty will be signed will not affect anything in this world, other than, perhaps, Barack Obama’s mood. The ambitions of countries with rough reputations (I’m not going to parrot others by calling them rogue states) will continue to agitate the world community just as much as Pakistan’s nuclear stability.

By and large, the START-2 treaty will not provide any benefit to Russia, other than making it look like a fighter for world peace while it retires the deadly junk. Strictly speaking, Russian leaders were supposed to achieve one main goal during the negotiations with the Americans — exchange Russia’s trash for as many American warheads as possible.

It’s difficult to say whether the Russian leaders will be able to accomplish this task. Based on information from knowledgeable sources, Russian pathological obsession with missile defense has once again manifested itself. And this unicorn will once again carry us down the wrong path, into the magical land of bagel holes.

In Russia, people like to talk about the “national interest.” Recycling obsolete warheads is part of that interest. But the Russian soul (which can be better described as capricious than mysterious) weaves radars and missiles into this serious matter. This is laughable, because radars and missiles have not been put into place yet, and in no way threaten Russia. No one needs them, other than Romanians and Bulgarians. Yet this topic keeps turning us into savages, who exchange gold for trinkets and mirrors.

American media reports of how the conversation with Dmitry Medvedev disappointed Barack Obama, and Obama’s surprise with Russia’s intransigence, are comical. Any press operates using schemes and conventional portraits, and it is quite possible that in a country where the media has a voice and influence, a citizen will not vote for the “naive romantic” Obama. But in that same country, experienced people handle foreign policy. They know how to deal with Russians, and share that information with Obama, who presumably listens to them.

Very recently, I have written how Russia can be wrapped around your finger (two ways to manipulate it). It’s sufficient to say the abbreviation NATO or ABM, and Russian attention will be instantly switched to these topics, which have been monstrously inflated in our consciousness. As soon as this powerful stimulus appears, the new subject radically changes our position. It’s as though a seller, while bargaining with you over the price of sweatpants, suddenly started to scratch a nail on glass. Although a moment ago you insisted on 250 rubles, now you agree to pay 300 rubles, just to stop the nasty sound.

Americans use the topic of ABM like a nail and glass. The scratching noise doesn’t bother them, but it creates an additional condition in the dispute. “You’ve got a problem with ABM, guys? No ABM [pronounced “pro” in Russian] – no PROblem. Let’s sign the agreement…” The tragedy of the capricious Russian soul lies in the fact that if the Americans decide against missile defense, or even simply show signs of possibly making such a decision in the future, it will definitely be perceived as a huge success in Russia’s foreign policy. We’ll sink our teeth into the bagel hole and, to our partners’ amusement, dance a merry jig, while they light a cigar and toast their victory.