Nuclear Danger — Is Romania Safe?

“The risk of a nuclear confrontation between nations has gone down, but the risk of a nuclear attack has gone up,” President Barack Obama said a few days ago at the Nuclear Security Summit. Then came the news that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in 3 to 5 years.

In spite of the great powers’ efforts to prevent it, the risk of a nuclear weapon ending up in the wrong hands is increasing. Would Romania be safe if it came to that? To what extent would we be affected in the terrible event of a nuclear attack?

Iran, the Closest

It has become increasingly obvious that the Islamic Republic of Iran is on its way to developing a nuclear weapon. It is true that America is currently working together with the other great powers in order to come up with a set of preemptive sanctions against Iran. However, it is impossible to know how tough these sanctions will be, especially since Russia and China still have some reservations because of their geopolitical interests and business connections.

In any case, the way things are shaping up, sanctions will probably be able to prevent Iran from acquiring an atomic bomb only for a few years, unless Israel will somehow decide to put an end to Iran’s nuclear program by means of air attacks — a decision that would have a devastating effect on the Middle East.

Either way, international security could receive a serious blow. But we should not become too alarmed. First, it is highly unlikely that Iran will ever use the bomb. Although they are Islamists, Iranian leaders are rational beings who understand that using nuclear weapons would mark the end of their political, if not physical, existence.

It is even more unlikely that these weapons of mass destruction will ever be used against Romania, although there are U.S. military bases on Romanian territory, which could be used during a possible American-Iranian war. In this unlikely event, the Tehran administration would, nevertheless, attack the American military bases in neighboring countries, such as Iraq and the Arabian nations.

Second, by the time the Iranians have built the bomb, the American anti-missile shield will be ready and capable of intercepting any nuclear missile aimed at our region. In short, the fact that Iran might develop a nuclear weapon poses only an indirect and distant threat to Romania.

The possibility that Romania will become the victim of an Iranian attack is almost non-existent. The real danger could reside in such a weapon being used in other regions of the world. This would constitute a serious breach of international security and a possible collapse of the global economy, with severe consequences for Romania as well. Still, this is only a distant threat for now.

Terrorists and Nuclear Missiles

Things would be very different if terrorist groups, such as the Taliban and especially al-Qaida, got hold of nuclear weapons. They would not hesitate to use them. And Romania would be one of the many nations to suffer the consequences.

Osama bin Laden, the individual who orchestrated the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, believes that atomic weapons are instrumental to his dream of destroying modern civilization and the Western world. Or the “crusader” nations, as he calls them.

How could terrorists acquire nuclear weapons? The most obvious source is Pakistan. This Muslim state does have nuclear weapons and is also an unwilling host to the most dangerous terrorist groups in the world.

Moreover, Pakistan is a weak state, a state that is not even able to control all of the regions of the country. For instance, the government is present only formally in the tribal provinces on the Afghan border. This is the reign of Taliban groups and the location of al-Qaida headquarters, where Osama bin Laden is probably hiding as well.

Since 2001, the Pakistani government has been fighting against some of these groups. It should be noted that it has not been fighting against all of them, because it tolerates some “friendly Taliban.” It tolerates them as long as they launch attacks only against the allied forces in Afghanistan, and not against the government.

The Pakistani army may be strong, but this does not mean that the danger of terrorists getting hold of nuclear weapons should be overlooked. Pakistan is a relatively backwards country that does not function well, and where poverty and human rights abuses can easily lead to extremism, while the people’s dissatisfaction could pave the way to chaos.

In such a setting, the possibility that terrorists might gain control of Pakistan’s nuclear missiles is not far-fetched. It is, however, highly unlikely because extreme security measures are in force. But not impossible.

Pakistani missiles are indeed unable to reach Europe. On the other hand, they do not actually need to reach it. Terrorists could attack India and the latter would respond with other nuclear attacks. They could also attack the U.S.-friendly nations in the region. A nuclear war would not only take its toll on the health of the planet, but it would also destroy the global economy. Again, we would also suffer the consequences.

“Dirty” Bombs

There is yet another way for terrorists to obtain nuclear weapons. They could build them, provided that they manage to acquire considerable quantities of plutonium or enriched uranium. They could either steal these radioactive substances or obtain them through a nuclear traffic network such as the one led by A.Q. Khan, the founder of the Pakistani nuclear program.

The nuclear devices they could thus develop would be either makeshift atomic bombs, relatively small in size, or “dirty” bombs. “Dirty” bombs are highly radioactive devices that can be placed in crowded locations and that can slowly cause cancer and other diseases.

Both types of bombs would indeed cause deaths, but their effects would be mostly psychological; the countries and their economies would not be destroyed.

In this case also, it is unlikely that Romania would be threatened directly, given that it is not one of the most important points of defense against terrorism. It is unlikely, but not impossible, as hard as it may be to believe that a terrorist group such as al-Qaida would waste a bomb on Romania when it could use it on an important country and have a greater impact.

The truth is that, no matter what we do, we are still exposed to some risk. Nuclear terrorism remains a possibility that we cannot ignore, no matter if we are directly or indirectly affected by it. As long as we are a member of the Western world, whose aim is to fight for security and the people’s well-being, and not an island isolated somewhere in the Pacific, these are the risks that we must take.

We are not the main protagonists in the fight against nuclear terrorism; the great powers are. We must only fulfill our obligations. Which means that we should have a functional state that is able to prevent direct threats. And we must fight terrorism. It is no use avoiding responsibility or taking refuge in the thought that we will be safe if we do not become involved. On the contrary.