Nuclear Deterrence as Seen from Paris and Washington

“I will not unilaterally give up nuclear arms, the guarantee of the security of my country, in a world as dangerous as today’s.” Thus reiterated Nicolas Sarkozy, on American television, the French conviction that the usefulness of nuclear arms persists in the context of a global strategy fraught with uncertainties.

Since the American president, Barack Obama, launched his slogan in April 2009 of a “world without nuclear weapons,” French opinions on the matter have been put in an awkward position. France sees itself as being criticized by militants for the abolition of atomic weapons due to its skeptical attitude. Mr. Sarkozy repeated that the abolition is a “dream” straight from an “imaginary world.” He didn’t hesitate to distance himself from Mr. Obama’s proclaimed ambition.

France isn’t lacking in arguments to support its end. France claims to be irreproachable on the matter of disarmament, and on the matter of its transparency concerning the size of its arsenal based on the notion of “conservative sufficiency.”

The differences in vocabulary with the Obama team are notable. But at the base of it all, the divergences aren’t that significant. Nicolas Sarkozy could have been within his rights to say that the new American nuclear doctrine, while restricting the conditions of the use of nuclear bombs, does not give up anything to nuclear deterrence. In Washington as in Paris, everyone admits that the conditions are far from being met in order for all nuclear arms stocks in the world to be eliminated.

President John F. Kennedy warned against the possible emergence of twenty or so nuclear powers. This dark vision has not been realized, but the non-proliferation regime, set in place in 1968 to check the dissemination of nuclear arms, has suffered some serious blows. There are now nine countries in possession of nuclear arms, compared to five in 1968. After the nuclear trials of North Korea, the next urgent nuclear crisis to be dealt with is that of Iran.

The Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which starts on Monday, May 3, in New York, could hardly choose to overlook this case. The West is being exposed to the revolt of Southern countries and to the movements of the opposition, who ask once again that the major powers engage to disarm themselves, and they denounce the tolerance of the West toward Israeli nuclear arms. The North-South divide on the nuclear question is one of the components of this new multipolar world.

Mr. Obama may well highlight the treaty to reduce strategic arsenals signed on April 8 with Russia. But Moscow has little desire to go any further, aware of its inferiorities on other levels. France reminds America that other essential stages must first be completed, such as a complete worldwide ban on nuclear trials and on the production of fissionable materials. Which raises, in passing, the question concerning the constant growth, in all secrecy, of China’s own arsenal.