The Strategy Game Between Russia, China and the U.S.

The strategy game between Russia, US and China has basically started in 2010. The U.S. and Russia basically is in a state of conflict, and a state of economic development. Whether China is able to become the leader in the eastern hemisphere still requires observation. An extremely obvious fact in this game is U.S. is still controlling the world’s development, and it is still in the process of confirming its new relationships with Russia and China.

According to an article in UK’s “Sunday Times” on April 25th, the U.S. Army had gained approval from President Obama for research and development on a new generation of ultra-fast weapons. These weapons can attack any part of the world within an hour. The former U.S. president, Junior Bush once advocated such technology and planned to use such weapons to replace the submarines nuclear warheads, but Russian leader felt that this would increase the chances of a nuclear war. In the end such weapons, which were still in the process of research and development, were not allowed to achieve progress under the Bush administration. Now the U.S. and Russia have gained a common understanding. On top of that, the U.S. and Russia had already signed an important agreement on nuclear disarmament. Subsequently, the strategy game between Russia and the U.S. started in 2010. The U.S. and Russia are basically in a state of conflict and a state of economic development, and whether China will become the leader in the eastern hemisphere still requires observation.

U.S. Strategy is Repositioning Itself

While recently in Hong Kong, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Campbell admitted that the U.S. is in the stage of looking for new friends and reconfirming old friends. The G8 relations is still insufficient to cover the whole world at the current stage. Whether G20 is able to resolve the current world conflict and economic crisis still requires observation. The U.S. has shifted its diplomatic focus to Asia since 2010. American defense and security in Asia will start in full swing. The U.S. wants a peaceful resolution, yet at the same time it is transporting weapons around Asia. The main issues that the U.S. government needs to focus on are still human rights, freedom of the press, etc. in Asia. Freedom of the press will be the key focus here. Maintaining the diversity of the Hong Kong media is also an important objective. Hong Kong establishmentarians and democrats are also parts of the diversity.

Campbell felt that it is easy to judge the relationship between Russia and the U.S. during the Cold War period, yet currently the relationships between the US and China and the U.S. and Russia are difficult to judge. To a certain degree, the requests made by these countries are not too much, but these requests are slowly eroding the benefits of the U.S. If the U.S. is able to handle the problems between China and the U.S. properly, this will stabilize the entire Asia region. To a certain degree, the U.S. does not hope China will control the eastern hemisphere, and it does not want China to share its interests in Asia.

Russia’s firm display on geopolitics is the core issue of the strategy game between Russia and the U.S. In spite of media’s close attention to Yuan exchange rate issue due to the rise of China, India’s contribution to technology, and the import of great quantities of weapons. Still, Russia is one of the Commonwealth of Independent States that is progressing steadily. Other than the Arab States, Russia has already become a steady supplier of the world’s energies. Russia is the world’s largest supplier in terms of natural gas. The U.S. is still lacking in terms of geopolitical experience as compared to Russia and is generally concerned with economic gains and not the expansion of territory and increasing its allies. Russia gained its experience through Europe’s struggle while the U.S. exerted considerable influence in economics and democratization.

The strategy game between Russia, the U.S. and China started after the economic crisis of the U.S., Russia’s geopolitics expansion in the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the excessive depreciation of Chinese RMB. The European Union, Japan and ASEAN have all disappeared from this strategy game. Taiwan also disappeared even though there are still issues between it and China. But one of the most obvious fact is that the U.S. is still controlling the development of global affairs, and it is still confirming its new relationships with Russia and China.

The Core of Russia’s Geopolitical Expansion

The most interesting character is Japan in Russia and the U.S.’s strategy game. Japan has developed quickly since 1967, and has contributed a lot to the world civilization. On top of that, after Japan became wealthy, it did not assume the accompanying international responsibilities. This is of course due to the U.S. suppressing it, but Japan’s politics usually tend to focus on a specific part rather than the big picture. Thus it lacks a strategy. One example is Japan’s long overdue apology to China over the issue of World War 2. After the burst of Japan’s bubble economy, its economic strength was not weakened. 2 years ago when the U.S. met with an financial crisis, Japan did not play its part. Now even when Japan’s Prime Minister is hoping that the U.S. withdraws its military bases in Japan, China on the other hand is expanding its domestic demand. These are all helping America’s internal economics and external political environment. As such, this led to the stepped up pressure for Hatoyama to resign. And many think tanks and civil society organizations felt that the policies that Hatoyama’s cabinet came up with are worse than Liberal Democratic Party.

China places extreme importance on economic development on a ideological perspective. Bringing up development is the last word of the theory. By doing so, China is preventing war by avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. on an ideological sphere. Russia was too pro-western before 1996, and adopted western scholars’ advocates, and began a shock therapy. After which Russians and the Russian government were basically against the U.S. Currently Russia is promoting sound economic policies, although Russia relies on its energy economics, but the main point for consideration for Medvedev and Putin is how to monopolize energy prices.

China hopes others will understand its difficulties and internal problems while it publicizes itself, but such rationale is generally weak and lack constructivism. Before the U.S. finds a good way to deal with China, there is no harm listening (to China) without expressing opinions. On top of that, continuing to use the depreciation of Renminbi to besiege China. The Chinese think tank emphasized that China might become the Western countries’ friend, but this point is still lacking in terms of theoretical ideas.

China Still Resolving its Internal Contradictions

Then, is the U.S. completely denying the rise of China? This is not the case, as China and the U.S. have to cooperate on some issues to reduce hostility from U.S. The U.S. started to notice the appreciation of the Renminbi only after Japan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs brought this up. Before 2004, the U.S. and its allies felt that the U.S. dollar should appreciate by 10%, now they feel that it should appreciate by 30%. The American think tank felt that China is currently facing trouble. Still it is not a fatal blow. This issue (Renminbi appreciating) and the issue that happened to China in 1978 and 1989 are totally different.

Father of the Euro, Mondale pointed out that the free market economy is unsuitable for developing China. Even liberal democracy in developing countries will result in populism. The Western countries that the U.S. is leading are performing in a stable manner. The economic situation will fully recover in 2012, and 2010 is a crucial time to start strategizing.

The American think tank feels that after the U.S. encountered the economic crisis, it has moved onto a new stage. And this stage is not a recession, rather it is a stage to seek out new strategic partners. China will continue to be its golden stage of development for the following 10 years, but the problem with China is how will it distribute its wealth from its economic development. The main issue that China should consider how resolving its internal contradictions will aggravate other issues. The focal point of observation is whether the U.S. and Russia will cooperate on certain issues.

Author is an associate professor and doctor