Brazil’s Crucial Moment

The Brazilian government is hoping to receive confirmation of a letter sent by Tehran to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The contents of the letter reveal the tentative understanding among Brazil, Turkey and Iran about Iran’s nuclear program. If the negotiations succeed, the crucial role of Brazil and President Lula as mediators will be confirmed; if they fail, Lula will be seen as naïve in his mission as a negotiator.

Foreign Minister Celso Amorim delivered the news that Iran will send the letter to the IAEA. The news agency Reuters also disclosed excerpts of a letter from U.S. President Barack Obama to President Lula, in which he encourages the Brazilian president to begin direct negotiations with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Tehran’s letter reflects ideas from President Obama’s letter about the understanding with Iran, a Palacio do Planalto* source confirmed.

According to the source, President Lula instructed government employees against disclosing Obama’s letter to the media, which would lead to considerable pressure on the U.S. president. This is a lesson learned from another incident in which Obama’s letter on the crisis in Honduras was leaked by the Brazilian government, leading to complaints from the White House.

Brazil’s main argument in its negotiations with Iran is that the failure of this understanding would bolster opposition to Ahmadinejad’s government, strengthening the most radical within the Ayatollah’s regime. This was also an opportunity for Iran to return to the international system.

There are many different Irans within Iran, noted the source, stating the obvious: Ahmadinejad is not the head of the country but Ali Khomenei, albeit without the support of the popular vote.

The failure of these negotiations mediated by Lula would feed the internal discourse of the opposition and would not help the negotiations with the West.

At this point, the Brazilian government believes that the U.N. sanctions against Iran are already much looser than previous ones. In addition, said the source, China imports 20 percent of its oil from Iran, and Russian exports arms to Iran. These two countries with permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council are the ones pushing to soften sanctions. If an economic embargo against Iran does indeed occur, both countries would be affected.

According to sources, Brazil convinced Iran of this “golden chance” to negotiate before it would have to face the threat of sanctions from the U.N.

*Translator’s Note: Palacio do Planalto is the seat of the Brazilian government, which means “Palace of the Plateau.”