The Referendum and the U.S.

In my article last week, I stated that a strong “yes” (around 55 percent) or a strong “no” (again, around 55 percent) would be important enough to trigger serious change in Washington’s judgment regarding the AK Party. Since the result was 58 percent “yes,” it is necessary to touch on what kind of an effect this is going to have in the U.S. First of all, let us make an important determination. No one in Washington cared about the “democratization of Turkey and ridding it of military guardianship” aspect of this referendum. The American administration treated this referendum as a confidence vote for the AK Party. It sought the answer to a simple question: How strong is the AK Party?

The Turkish people’s response to this question is now apparent. The AK Party is still quite strong. This 58 percent strengthened the hand of those who are pragmatic with regards to AK Party and it is now a stronger belief in Washington that Ankara will be led by the AK Party for another term. At the same time, this referendum made things more difficult for those who do not like the AK Party. This side had recently become stronger due to Turkey’s policies on Iran and Israel, and debates on “shifting of the axis” and “we’re losing Turkey” had increasingly accelerated. This side will now have a tougher time because they have seen that the Turkish people support the AK Party. Certainly, had the referendum resulted in a strong “no,” this would have made those against the AK Party very happy. A strong “no” would have shown them that the Turkish people are looking for an alternative outside the AK Party.

So how will Washington behave now? We started seeing clues of this during this week. The Obama administration’s response to the results of the recent “Transatlantic Trends” report by the international think tank “German Marshall Fund” (GMF) was meaningful. According to the results of this paper, there is a serious trend in the Turkish public of distancing itself from the West and becoming closer to the Middle East. The report states that there is an ongoing collective “shift in axis” that is happening. Indeed, the numbers paint a striking picture. For example, if asked which countries Turkey should be in closest partnership with, 20 percent of the people would prefer the Middle East, whereas only 13 percent choose the E.U. The percentage of those who are favorable towards E.U. membership is only 38 percent. This percentage was 78 percent just 5 years ago. The number of people who believe that Turkey will become a member of the E.U. is only 26 percent. According to the report, only 30 percent of the Turkish public opinion supports NATO. Opinion of the U.S. is terrible. Of all the Western countries, the Turks have shown the least amount of confidence in U.S. President Obama, at 28 percent. The percentage of those who would chose the U.S. for close partnership is only 6 percent. That is to say, while 20 percent of Turkey is favorable toward the Middle East, only 6 percent see the United States as its closest partner.

Under normal conditions, wouldn’t you expect an Obama administration that is angry at the AK Party to use this report as a serious opportunity and criticize Ankara for not preserving its alliance with NATO and its relations with the West? Along these lines, Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon stated just a few weeks ago that “We think Turkey remains committed to NATO, Europe and the United States, but that needs to be demonstrated. There are people asking questions about it in a way that is new, and that in itself is a bad thing that makes it harder for the United States to support some of the things that Turkey would like to see us support.” In contrast, the same Philip Gordon had a very positive analysis regarding Turkey at the meeting he attended through this report at the GMF last week, by declaring that the American administration is not worried about a shifting of the axis or distancing from the West and that Turkey is a very important “strategic partner.” Behold the effect of the referendum on Washington. Due to this referendum, the Obama administration has comprehended that Turkey will be governed by the AK Party for another term. The U.S.’s choice is to be pragmatic.