From Jerusalem to Baghdad, Obama Still Has Not Resolved Anything in the Middle East

From Beirut to Kabul or Baghdad to Jerusalem, there are plenty of complex issues in the Middle East and Central Asia for Barack Obama to delve into in the second half of his term, when analysis points to a president more focused on international issues than domestic ones.

The U.S. leader is currently facing two wars inherited from the previous administration, one in Afghanistan and the other in Iraq. He sees the deterioration of the political situation in Lebanon and Yemen. He is trying not to fail as his predecessors did in the chaotic peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians. And he is still looking for reconciliation with the regimes in Damascus and Tehran, while trying to prevent the Syrians from supporting groups hostile to the U.S. and the Iranians from developing nuclear weapons.

When he took office, Obama promised to fulfill his campaign promise and end the Iraq War. Combat operations were closed in August and by the end of 2011, almost all the 50,000 soldiers still based in Iraq should be removed. It might seem a success, if it were not for the terrorist attacks that have returned to threaten Baghdad, with last week being the most violent of the entire year.

Moreover, the political stalemate has lasted since March and the likely future coalition government in Iraq looks to be closer to Iran than to the United States, the analyst Wayne White, former director of Middle East CIA, told this paper. His assessment coincides with the official U.S. documents published by Wikileaks. “Iraqi politics distance themselves from the U.S. more every time. Few of the decisions taken are consistent with the counsel from Washington for the Iraqi leaders,” he said.*

In Afghanistan, Obama will have to contend with opposition from both sides of Congress. According to an analysis of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, “Many Democrats on the left question the president’s 2009 decision to send more troops to Afghanistan. While most Republicans support the war, many criticize his July 2011 drawdown date for U.S. troops.” And both criticize the financial aid to Kabul, where corruption reigns supreme. To complicate matters, President Hamid Karzai also reached out to Tehran in recent months, admitting to receiving financial assistance from the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians has been at a standstill since the end of September. The U.S. has asked Israel to freeze construction of new units in settlements for over two months. The administration of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu refused due to pressure from members of his coalition who are connected to the settlers. Palestinians say they will return to the negotiation table only if the moratorium is extended. And Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, a friend of Washington, admitted to taking the issue of creating a Palestinian state to the United Nations, putting Obama in a tricky situation.

Upon assuming power, the president also promised to try for reconciliation with our enemies. Iran agreed to return to the negotiation table to discuss the nuclear issue, but the two sides are still far from agreement. In Damascus, the relationship is dubious. According to Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at Oklahoma University, “there is distrust,” as much from the Americans as the Syrians. “Last week, the regime of Bashar Al Assad accused Washington of destabilizing the region. In response, the State Department accused them of the same.”*

As if these problems were not enough, Obama still must deal with the growth of al-Qaida in Yemen, which directly affects American security. Meanwhile, the U.S. strategy is to train and arm security forces of the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh. But it is unclear whether these efforts will be enough, especially bearing in mind that the Yemeni state is the weakest and the poorest of the entire region.

The U.N. special tribunal for Lebanon should formally accuse members of Hezbollah in the coming months of the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, father of the current Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri. Anticipating the announcement, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, is demanding the government in Beirut to repudiate the charge of the United Nations, which he says serves U.S. interests and Israel.

Hariri is in a complicated situation. He is the biggest supporter of the tribunal since its installation and the victim’s son; the prime minister is also an ally of the U.S., despite keeping his distance from Israel. But he knows he cannot clash with Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and an ally of some Christian factions — the rest of which support the prime minister. A case causing the imprisonment of some members could provoke a new civil war.

In recent weeks, Hariri and his allies have complained that they are not receiving sufficient support from Americans. In an attempt to show that the United States has not abandoned Lebanon, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton telephoned the prime minister and said that he can count on American support. But in Beirut, many question whether this support would be enough to contain Hezbollah.

*Editor’s note: These quotations, accurately translated, could not be verified.