Asia Earns Fortunes and Spends Lavishly on Arms

North Korea’s nuclear bomb can be likened to a luxury suit bought by a poor man who sold everything in order to impress the neighbors. Taking a closer look, in terms of arms in Asia, there are others who have gone to the tailor more frequently: China, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Pakistan and Singapore. If the North Koreans have only one exuberant outfit, others in the region are able to display several well-cut suits. Starting with the South Koreans, who after a draw in the war of 1950-1953 have built a thriving democracy, while in the North arose a Stalinist monarchy that barely feeds its subjects. That is why the South is not burdened financially by the purchase of airplanes, ships and tanks. Next year it plans to spend $27 billion in armaments, which is not much for an economic power that ranks 12th economically worldwide.

The global economy has helped Asia make its fortune, and now it lavishes itself with arms. Out of the top ten major arms importers between 2002 and 2009, six of the countries were Asian. Those who profited from this diversity of demand were, of course, the United States, the main supplier, but also the United Kingdom and Russia, agile in securing contracts.

There is another reason behind the drive to buy besides just the availability of money: necessity. For Pakistan it is the memory of three wars with India; India not only fears its Pakistani enemy, but also China, who has a habit of maneuvering through the Himalayas and building bases in the Bay of Bengal; China because it has pretensions to superpower status, does not want to present itself as a weak figure before Japan and has to counter Taiwan’s independence; Taiwan because the protection of U.S. aircraft carriers might not be sufficient to deter an upset China; South Korea because it knows that the Kim dynasty can one day try a second round of fighting in a war that ended without a peace agreement 57 years ago; and Singapore, because it is a country so tiny it has to show its muscles in a region where all others exhibit their strength. There are also Russian and Japanese expenses to take into account (both countries supply their internal arms markets). The two countries have yet to resolve the sovereignty issue of the Kuril, halfway between the Russian Kamchatka and Japan Hokkaido.

A war in East Asia would be disastrous. It would destabilize a region that serves as the engine for the world economy and would certainly have an impact thousands of kilometers away, because the United States would most certainly be involved, given its many allies in the area. But even if the ramifications of war are great, its origin may be small. Even though the most obvious area of concern is North Korea, which has become an nuclear power since buying the secrets of the bomb from the Pakistani Khan, it is important not to overlook such trouble spots, such as the exotically-named islets of Dodko, Paracelsus and Spratley. And before the Kim dynasty decides to cut a piece of its suit, it would be to the world’s benefit to show one of these days that the emperor is naked.