The U.S. Worries about “Its” Bahrain

If the monarchy in Bahrain falls, the U.S. Navy fears for the headquarters of its 5th Fleet in Manama.

A democratization process in Bahrain, inspired by ongoing protests across the Middle East, does not fit in with American plans. This frank admission was made over the weekend in a CNN report about Washington’s interests in the Persian Gulf.

In the past few weeks, Bahrain has been the scene of widespread demonstrations against the Al Khalifa royal family. They have been met with a wave of repression that killed at least 12 and injured several hundred others.

However, since the weekend, Bahrain has vanished from U.S. media coverage, to be replaced by reports of the demonstrations in Libya.

The Obama administration’s current strategy on the Middle East unrest has been endorsed by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham: “I think we should have a policy of urging old friends to do better in replacing old enemies,” Graham said in a television panel discussion on Sunday.

The reason Washington has little enthusiasm for democracy in Bahrain is that the loss of America’s close ally King Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa would also mean a lessening of American military power in the region.

For that reason Washington has supported the monarchy, which provides a pseudo-democratic bicameral congress to keep armed demonstrations from occurring while “encouraging reforms.”

The military did, in fact, withdraw from the scene of the demonstrations, but only to be replaced by the much-feared civilian security police organization, the “Mukhabarat.” Since then, Washington has stopped pushing for further reforms.

With its population of 1.2 million, Bahrain is of negligible size in the “Pax Americana,” but the U.S. 5th Fleet is headquartered there. And with its 6,000 military personnel it is, in the words of Michael Rubin, a Middle East expert with the conservative American Enterprise Institute, “our most important strategic asset in the Persian Gulf.”

Rubin went on to say that if the monarchy fell, “Bahrain would become an Iranian satellite, and the 5th Fleet would be sent packing.” He added that “if there’s a sense that the dominoes are falling and the United States is the big loser, then all the regional states are going to make their accommodation with Iran, whether they like us or not.”

The Obama administration will therefore refrain from loudly criticizing the wave of repression against the protesters, hoping that the Khalifas will be able to “stabilize” their system. “Bahrain may be the tiniest Arab country, but it is probably the only country in the region where the United States cannot afford regime change,” Rubin said.

His one-sided, anti-Iranian equation, however, omitted the Saudi Arabia factor. Less ideologically oriented experts believe that should the U.S. naval base actually be endangered, Riyadh — with U.S. backing — would occupy Bahrain and repress its Shiite majority population.

A further mobilization of the Shiites would eventually spill over into Saudi Arabia’s border regions with Bahrain, where Shiites are in the minority. The destabilization of relations between the United States and the House of Saud is a nightmare scenario for American elites.

Bahrain’s King Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa and his family have been regular visitors to Washington for years. Since the George W. Bush administration’s proclamation of the “global war on terror” the regime has been one of Washington’s closest allies.

Revelations from the WikiLeaks documents show that the king has repeatedly pressured Washington to invade Iran. The naval base in Bahrain serves as a hub for military operations from the Persian Gulf and Red Sea to Central Asia.

In America’s global strategy, the capital city of Manama is the key to protecting its “vital interests” — the oil supply — as well as being a counterweight to the emerging regional power, Iran.

The 5th Fleet headquarters in Manama has 30 warships with about 30,000 Marine combat troops, as well as other personnel at its disposal to protect the oil routes. Last but not least, Bahrain is essential for waging war in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

For example, warplanes based on carriers in Bahrain provide air cover for the U.S. ground troops fighting in Afghanistan.