A Small Aircraft Carrier War

Yesterday night the U.S. announced the beginning of “repositioning naval and air forces around Libya.” In particular, two aircraft carriers with support ships are being directed to duty near the North African coastline. It appears that fearing the destruction of Libya’s oil infrastructure and Moammar Gadhafi’s use of chemical weapons, Washington has decided to take on the responsibility of the ramifications of potential military operations. In opposition to this, according to Kommersant, stands a block of influential European members of NATO led by Germany and Russia. Nevertheless, the U.S. is prepared to win a small war and do it without the approval of allies or the United Nations Security Council.

Aircraft Carriers for the Colonel

“We have planners working and various contingency plans,” stated Pentagon spokesperson Colonel David Lapan yesterday. “I think it’s safe to say as part of that we’re repositioning forces to be able to provide for that flexibility once decisions are made.” In particular, the representative of the U.S. Department of Defense explained that the Navy was given an order to keep two aircraft carriers with support ships in the region. On this matter Colonel Lapan made it clear that specific tasks have not yet been presented to the military.

The U.S. Sixth Fleet is stationed in the Mediterranean Sea. With the exception of headquarters, security divisions and the flagship, the Sixth Fleet does not have a permanent staff. Forces and resources are allocated to its staff by order of the Navy’s operating headquarters when required. The main striking force of the fleet includes one to two carriers, each accompanied by about six cruisers and destroyers. Each carrier carries on deck 65 to 85 planes (fighters, fighter-bombers, anti-submarines and reconnaissance). The fleet consists of about three amphibious ships and no fewer than 1600 naval infantrymen, armed with tanks, artillery and helicopters. In addition, the formation includes strategic nuclear submarines that carry ballistic nuclear missiles. During the spring of 2003, at the moment of maximum strength on the eve of the Iraq invasion, more than 400 ships joined the fleet, including two aircraft carriers, two to four nuclear submarines, 175 planes and 21,000 naval officers.

Meanwhile, in the West they have already been actively discussing the prospect of “humanitarian intervention” for several days. After the U.N. Security Council unanimously accepted a resolution to impose sanctions on Moammar Gadhafi, his relatives and his closest associates, people in Washington started talking about the need for harsher action in regard to the Libyan regime. “We are going to be ready and prepared to offer any kind of assistance that anyone wishes to have from the U.S.,” stated U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Sunday before heading to Geneva for the U.N. Human Rights Council meeting of high level foreign dignitaries. In fact, the forum held yesterday became the world platform for discussion of the main question: what to do with Libya?

Washington has taken the strongest stance against the Gadhafi regime. Yesterday, members of the American delegation at the discussions in Geneva assured journalists, on the condition of anonymity, that the U.S. is not ruling out the possibility of carrying out a pinpointed force operation in order to break the colonel’s resistance and thus stop the destruction of the civilian population (according to human rights advocates, the death toll has exceeded 2,000 people). Co-chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs Joe Lieberman* revealed another option on air with CNN, saying, “We’ve got to recognize the opposition provisional government as the legitimate government of Libya [which the former justice minister Mustafa Abdel-Jalil is forming in Benghazi —Kommersant] and that we ought to give that government certainly humanitarian assistance and military arms … [and] give them the wherewithal to fight on behalf of the people of Libya against a really cruel dictator.”

“No Interfering Under Any Circumstance”

In fact, the special forces of NATO member countries have already visited Libya. Reports were heard Sunday about the successful special forces operation to rescue citizens by the U.K. Ministry of Defense. According to the agency, during a clandestine special forces mission Saturday in the Libyan desert, fighters landed from the elite SAS special forces regiment and proceeded to evacuate around 150 workers from British oil companies (BP and Shell operate in the country). As British Secretary of State for Defense Liam Fox stated, during the operation one of the RAF Hercules aircraft was slightly damaged from small arms fire. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle also announced Sunday that German special forces commandos evacuated 132 people during a mission. So it is apparent that London and Berlin have already landed their troops in Libya without official permission from Tripoli.

It must be said that, according to the conclusions of yesterday’s meeting in Geneva, a decision about military operations was not agreed upon. Differences of opinion were the cause, particularly in the ranks of NATO. For example, a source in the German Bundestag Committee on Defense told Kommersant that in Berlin they are actively discussing the prospects of a military operation in Libya, but a decision in favor of this option has not yet been passed. “The operation has not been ruled out, but we think that other ways of resolving the conflict are not yet exhausted,” said the Kommersant source. Also according to the source, at NATO headquarters France has taken a similar position, although at an emergency meeting Friday, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged the allies to begin looking at all possible options. Paris is seemingly afraid that participating in military operations or even expressing tacit approval will significantly impact France’s interests in North Africa.

Russia also numbers among the opponents to any actions that step outside of the accepted framework of a U.N. Security Council resolution. Russia’s permanent representative to the U.N. Vitaly Churkin spoke about Moscow’s unwillingness to support military action yesterday. Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov, who participated in the discussions in Geneva, mentioned after a meeting with Hillary Clinton that they did not discuss plans for military action, including the establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya. “In Libya a civil war is happening. Regardless of when it will end, Gadhafi’s political regime has already lost and is moving toward collapse. There is no need to interfere in any case,” said chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Mikhail Margelov, explaining Russia’s position to Kommersant. “Foreign intervention is always bad, especially in Arab nations. We need to follow the medical principle of “do no harm” and observe how the situation develops. The Libyans themselves will decide their fate; we don’t need to bother them, or help them.”

A Lightning-fast Victorious War

In the United States, however, they think differently. According to experts, keeping in mind the capabilities of U.S. Navy positioning near the North African coastline, the Pentagon will altogether bring the “closed skies” strategy to life, enabling the U.S. to knock down all aircraft over Libya. This would limit pro-Gadhafi aviation and also stop the surge of mercenaries from Sub-Saharan African countries. This initiative, by the way, in contrast to a direct military invasion of Libya, is actively supported by many NATO members.

In the operation’s second phase the Pentagon may send in a division for a special purpose. Their first task would be to find and neutralize munitions filled with chemical agents, as well as the physical removal of Colonel Gadhafi and his inner circle. The principle of a lightning-fast “war at a distance” will allow the United States to avoid serious losses in personnel but will wield a large propagandistic effect. Especially against the backdrop of prolonged campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Furthermore, in the process of justifying itself, Washington may point to threats issued from the cornered Colonel Gadhafi. We are referring to the danger of the Libyan regime destroying the country’s oil infrastructure and also threats to use chemical weapons against insurgents. In this context the U.S. does not need approval from the U.N. Security Council for carrying out a military operation in Libya. Over the last 15 years Washington has begun wars with less justification.

“No Discussions on Intervention”

All day yesterday fierce fighting continued in Libya. Although it seemed that over the weekend the rebel forces opposing Moammar Gadhafi successfully captured the country’s third largest city, Misurata (see yesterday’s Kommersant), fighting broke out with renewed vigor. The fiercest fighting occurred near an airbase. A military helicopter from the government forces tried to destroy the radio transmission antenna that the rebels used to launch their broadcasts; however, it was shot down by anti-aircraft artillerymen who had joined the revolution.

Circumstances remained no less tense in the capital, where rebels are trying to repulse the regime’s forces. 30-year-old Tripoli inhabitant Mustafa al-Barfali, who occasionally accesses the Internet through his mobile phone and is able to talk by Skype, told Kommersant that control of city blocks is moving from side to side — over the weekend rebels were still in control of his region, Souq al Juma, but yesterday they were beaten back by dark skinned mercenaries. “Mercenaries from Chad are patrolling the city in enormous jeeps, and they are shooting at everyone indiscriminately. Our house was bombarded. We covered the window with dark rags and we don’t stick our noses outside them,” he says. “Automatic gunfire pierced my brother’s car, and bullets were lodged in the driver’s seat. It’s a miracle that he is still alive.”

At night, when the firing calms down, Mustafa and his neighbors quietly gather at someone’s home and discuss the situation. “We are in an information blockade. When we heard about the U.N. resolution, everyone celebrated. But now we are scared again — after all, Gadhafi has no way out. He can decide on whatever he wants. Everyone has heard about chemical weapons,” he says.

Despite the horrors of civil war, Mustafa hopes that a future without Moammar Gadhafi awaits Libya soon. “The main thing is that the world community believes in us and continues to help. We don’t need any talk of foreign intervention; they would just make the situation worse and undermine trust in our friends in the entire world,” he said, “We will manage this ourselves. There won’t be any kind of collapse of our country.”

*Translator’s Note: The error is in the original Russian article. Senator Lieberman is not Co-chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs; he is Chairman of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.