Air Raid Did Not Reach Goal; Libya Remains Uncertain

On March 19, under the codename Operation Odyssey Dawn, a coalition of Japanese, American, British, French and other forces carried out military actions in Libya. Although there are similarities between this Western intervention to the Gulf War in 1991, the Kosovo War in 1999, the Afghan War in 2001 and the Iraq War in 2003, it is unique in its own way.

This time, the United States refuses to be the leader. Since the Cold War, the United States has been a very active instigator and initiator of numerous military interventions carried out by Western countries. It is, however, not as enthusiastic in this military operation. The United States has learned the political risk and economic cost from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

No Ground Troops

Usually, Western powerhouses send out ground troops to occupy major military points once the enemy’s air defense forces are destroyed. This time around, as many of the countries in the coalition are facing opposition to their military decision within their countries, they are trying to sooth anti-war sentiments by avoiding casualties. United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates reiterated that no ground forces would be sent and meanwhile, both Britain and France relied mainly on their air forces instead of army or marine forces.

Limited Strategic Objectives

In the past, Western countries took military action often with the objective to overturn a regime. The recent military intervention, to a certain degree, is a deliberate show of strength in order to create a vision to the public that the Gadhafi regime will certainly be overturned, and Gadhafi will follow the footstep of Hosni Mubarak and resign. Meanwhile, it also encourages the Libyan rebels to advance west and attack Gadhafi’s government.

At the current stage, although the coalition dubbed the military action a success, the goal remains unfulfilled. Libya’s military strength completely exceeded the coalition’s expectations. Gadhafi’s troops not only managed to not be at a disadvantage, they have successfully defended against the rebels’ invasion many times. As the result of many years of military and economic sanctions, Gadhafi’s military force is modest: It consists of only one combat unit of 50,000 soldiers, around 200 T-20 and 100 T-62 main battle tanks. However, the 32nd brigade and the 9th division, which are estimated to have around 10,000 troops and are commanded by Gadhafi’s two sons, are indeed premier forces. On top of that, Gadhafi also has an estimated troop of 3,000 well-trained mercenaries under his command.

After the air raid, Gadhafi also gained support from three major tribes: Warfala, Tarhuna and Qadhadhfa. Their troops used civilian facilities to shield their elite ground troops from the coalition’s bombs and maintained the advantage against the rebels. In contrast, the Libyan rebels consisted of people from all backgrounds; their lack of training and leadership result in a force that lacks coherence. Although the United States has offered its help by announcing it would freeze Gadhafi’s bank account and transfer $300 million to the rebels, encouraging other Western countries to purchase oil from rebel-held territory and sending out CIA operatives to help equip the rebels, it has not yet given a green light to providing weapons to the rebels, as the extra training required would constitute involvement in the civil war. The United States is also worried that, if there are members of Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah among the rebels, it might yet create another monster, just like when it provided support to Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in the ‘80s.

The situation in Libya remains uncertain, and there are three possible outcomes:

1. It might copy Egypt and carry out its diplomatic actions thorough the African Union, the League of Arab States, Italy or Turkey. The crisis will end in peace as Gadhafi and the rebels manage to reach a political consensus and form a united government if Gadhafi steps down from leadership.

2. It might copy Somalia. As Libya consists of different tribes, once the turmoil is over the country will fall into anarchy similar to the situation in Somalia, and the conflicts among parties and tribes will heat up.

3. It might copy Iraq. The NATO troops will make a devastating blow to Libya by providing heavy weapons to the rebels, sending out ground forces, building military bases and occupy Libya. It will result in an overall stable Libya, but the violence will not cease.

Only time will tell which direction will Libya go.