Democrats Set TheirSights on a Supermajority

US Congressional Elections

The Democrats are heading for a substantial increase in their majority in Congress. In the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election on November 4th, the polls suggest that the Democrats may add from 10 to 30 additional seats to the 235 they already have.

In the 100 member Senate, where 35 seats are being contested, some polls indicate that a 60 seat majority for the Democrats may be within reach. This would be a remarkable achievement for them. This is because a 60 seat majority would make it impossible for the Republicans to block the passage of an unpopular bill using the so-called filibuster, an infinitely extended debate meant to prevent a vote. The Democrats would then have a free hand to pass their agenda in Congress.

“The Democrats have a great advantage in this election,” says John Fortier, an election expert at the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington. “A substantial number of Republican seats are in great danger.”

The Democrats’ main advantage comes from the fact that this election, as was the case in the 2006 Congressional elections, is a referendum on President George W. Bush’s term in office, and how unpopular his party is said to be at the moment. Michele Bachmann from Minnesota is one conservative representative fighting for her reelection. She has to be wishing that she wasn’t filmed placing her hand on the President’s shoulder after his speech to the nation in January 2007. This is because Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg is now breathing down Bachmann’s neck, who had been leading by a comfortable margin. Bachmann said today that she would invite Democrat Barack Obama into her district should he become President.

As in the presidential campaign, where Obama leads Republican John McCain, the financial crisis has helped the Democratic Congressional candidates. For example, former comedian and political commentator Al Franken had a tough time over the summer convincing voters in Minnesota to take his candidacy for a Senate seat seriously. Now he is making proposals as to how companies could obtain credit, and in the process, Franken has overtaken the Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the polls.

Coleman is, after all, up for reelection. Five of his Republican Senate colleagues, whose terms are ending, have chosen not to run for office again this year.

In the House of Representatives, 32 representatives are retiring, 26 of them being Republicans. Fortier says that replacement candidates are difficult to find. “The party has big recruiting problems.”

The Democrats do not have this problem. Al Franken is just one example. In the Minneapolis suburbs, Ashwin Madia, who is just 30 years old, is running for office, and the rookie has a good chance of winning the race against his experienced Republican rival Erik Paulson. A victory by Madia, an Indian-American Iraq veteran, would be a validation of what Democratic election strategists have been saying. They want to expand the influence of their party from the cities into the suburbs.

Furthermore, they are targeting states which will probably not vote Democratic in the presidential election. This is why Republican Senators in conservative southern states such as Georgia and North Carolina are having problems keeping their Democratic challengers at arm’s length.

Political expert Stuart Rothenburg is therefore advising the Republicans not to count on a victory in their campaign anymore, but rather on limiting their losses. The Republicans would have to warn voters before the election that a President Obama would have a “blank check” if the Democrats also control Congress.

This strategy is not very flattering for McCain because it assumes that he will lose.