National Security Advisor Bolton’s Dismissal Places Heavy Burden on Trump’s Diplomacy

Published in Mainichi Shimbun
(Japan) on 12 September 2019
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Stimson. Edited by Barbara Finkemeyer.
U.S. President Donald Trump has fired his national security advisor, John Bolton, who pushed a hard line foreign policy and provoked squabbles within the Cabinet.

Trump made his dissatisfaction plain on Twitter: “I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others in the Administration.”

Bolton refused to dismiss the possibility of military action against North Korea and Iran, even aiming for regime change, which brought him into conflict with those, like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who have pursued resolutions through diplomacy.

Blton's duty was to control the administration’s diplomatic and security policy. Bolton's hard line, which who prioritized military intervention, brought with it the danger of destabilizing the world. Dismissing him was a sensible decision.

Nonetheless, this is the third time the national security advisor has been replaced in the two years and eight months since the inauguration. You have to admit that this is unusual.

The direct cause of Bolton’s dismissal is said to be his attempt to prevent a peace agreement with the Taliban, Afghanistan’s former governing force.

The talks were canceled after an American soldier was killed in Afghanistan, but Trump must be eyeing a result that could conclude the 18-year war on terror.

If Trump can accomplish an American withdrawal from Afghanistan, it would count as a diplomatic win ahead of the presidential election next year. A peace deal would be a prelude to this.

Trump has even tweeted that he told Bolton he was “no longer needed.” The dismissal can only be considered to have been dictated by emotion.

This round of the dismissal drama originates from the lack of a systematic foreign policy in the Trump administration.

Even though the nuclear problem is the same, Trump emphasizes dialogue with North Korea while putting pressure on Iran. It is said that the administration and some congressmen distrusted the Taliban, the negotiating partners, even during the Afghan peace talks.

Trump must have appointed Bolton despite being aware of his hard-line attitude. If policies keep changing, based on on-the-spot profit-and-loss calculations, and personnel keep getting replaced, won’t America’s negotiating and diplomatic power simply diminish?

More than 50 Cabinet secretaries and high-level officials in the Trump administration have resigned. About 30 of these were in fact dismissals, and some posts have not been refilled.

The blame for this lies with Trump, since he has the power to appoint these officials. If he continues to ignore the chaos and makes haphazard personnel decisions, the same confrontations will simply continue.


トランプ米大統領が、強硬な外交政策を主張し、政権内で物議を醸してきたボルトン大統領補佐官(国家安全保障問題担当)を解任した。

 トランプ氏はツイッターで「彼の提案の多くに全く同意していなかった。政権内の他の人たちもそうだった」と不満をあらわにした。

 北朝鮮やイランへの軍事行動を辞さず、体制転換すら目指すボルトン氏は、外交による解決を追求するポンペオ国務長官らと対立していた。

 政権の外交・安保政策を調整するのが任務だ。武力攻撃に前のめりなボルトン氏の強硬路線には世界を不安定化させる危うさがつきまとう。解任は理にかなう判断だろう。

 それにしても、安保担当補佐官の交代は政権発足後の2年8カ月で3人目だ。異常と言わざるを得ない。

 解任の直接のきっかけは、アフガニスタンの旧支配勢力タリバンとの和平合意をボルトン氏が阻止しようとしたことだという。

 アフガンでの米兵殺害で協議は中止されたが、トランプ氏は18年にわたる対テロ戦争を終結させる「成果」とにらんでいたのではないか。

 来年の大統領選に向けて、アフガンからの米軍撤退が実現すれば外交面での得点になるだろう。和平合意はその前提になるものだった。

 トランプ氏はボルトン氏に「もう必要ない」と伝えたことまで明らかにした。感情に任せての解任だったと受け取られても仕方あるまい。

 今回の解任劇は、トランプ政権が体系的な外交戦略を欠いていることに起因している。

 同じ核問題でも北朝鮮とは対話路線を重視するが、イランには圧力をかける。アフガン和平協議でも交渉窓口のタリバンは信用できないとの指摘が政権や議会内にあるという。

 トランプ氏はボルトン氏の強硬姿勢を知りつつ起用したはずだ。その場の損得勘定で政策を変え、頻繁に人事交代を繰り返せば交渉力や外交力は衰えるばかりではないか。

 トランプ政権では50人以上の閣僚や政府高官が辞任している。このうち約30人は事実上の解任で、後任が決まらないポストもある。

 この責任は任命権を持つトランプ氏にある。混乱した状態を放置し、場当たり人事を繰り返すなら、同じ対立が繰り返されるだけだ。
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