Manners of an Economist?

Published in Sankei Shinbun
(Japan) on 13 January 2009
by Hiroshi Yuasa (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yota Mukaiyachi. Edited by Louis Standish.
I have been oddly stuck on one phrase said by Mr. Greenspan; that is what he cleverly expressed, a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami." It immediately spread out worldwide since it was made by the person who had been seated at top as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank.

However, I must have heard such a line like "once-in-a-century" from his mouth before. So, I pulled out and looked over my scrapbooks, and right away, there it is.

There was a similar remark he makes in a serial article called "The American Empire" from Washington on May 1998. But the context was completely opposite; it was used as a punch line that chants the second arrival of "America's century."

During this period, the U.S. had blown off a momentous rumor of its decline and built the golden age of the 1990s. Dollars used to flow back and forth over the world, and the U.S. troops used to operate on the other side of the Earth. On theaters of the world's corners, the young people enjoyed Hollywood movies.

A theory of the 1980s rise of Japan and its threat vanished completely at that time, and the Chinese power was still murky. The magazines on American diplomacy identified a new wave of the information revolution as a key to America's prosperity and declared the coming of the second wave of "America's century" following the first wave after WWII.

Chairman Greenspan called the revolution as a "once-in-a-century" situation since the invention of an electric generator in the 1800s in a hearing, as if he were a prophet. He listed increasing productivity due to technological innovation, globalization of economies and lowered expenses due to deregulation and spoke very passionately of the three elements.

Then he just called this arrival of recession "once-in-a-century tunami" last fall. It has been only 10 years. How dizzy this up-and-down has been! And an economist will say that this recession is that serious, with hindsight.

When a big economist gives a pessimistic oracle resolutely, a herd of small economists follows it. If they all followed the manner and chorused "deterioration of economy," the world would inevitably lose its drive. It would further deteriorate if they tell the public to tighten one's wallet during a downtown.

Since the whole world is dependent on the U.S. market, if someone fell, then everyone would fall. Moreover, what is more troublesome is that the decline of the U.S. leads to the rise of rouge states.

In history, there has been always a good guy in a community, flinging bad guys away. When his power becomes diminished, a dirty bunch stands up again.

If the good guy was the U.S. in the international community, he led to the fall of the Soviet Union, liberated the East Europe and drove Iraq out of Kuwait. But when the good guy trips over something, tough nations behave indecently with open egoism and say "America's unilateral rule is over."

Russia has stopped supplying its natural gas because it is not pleased with attitudes of its neighbor, Ukraine. This is clearly an intimidation during the harsh winter. The action reminds me of the military invasion into Georgia last summer.

Also, China is thought to plan to build a new aircraft carrier with high offensive capability during the good guy's decline. What the Chinese authority said before must be a lie now. China is also developing a new natural gas field unilaterally, going against the Japan-China agreement on that issue last June. It bulldozes its own interest over criticism from the Japanese counterpart by citing the difference on interpretation.

The decline of a good guy like the U.S. is troubling, but one should not underestimate this super-sized nation. The country which has experienced the "once-in-a-century" extreme twice will unexpectedly recover quickly.


「通貨の番人」だったグリーンスパン氏の一言が妙にひっかかっていた。この大不況を「100年に1度の大津波」と巧みに表現したアレである。米連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)議長という頂点を極めた人物の発言だから、たちどころに世界に広がった。
 でも、「100年に1度」とは以前、どこかで彼の口から聞いたセリフに思えてならない。そこで、スクラップを引っ張り出して念入りに調べてみると、どんぴしゃり、やはりあった。
 1998年5月にワシントン発で書いた連載「アメリカ帝国」に、彼が似て非なる発言をしている引用があった。しかも、趣旨はまったく逆で、第2の「アメリカの世紀」到来を唱(うた)うパンチワードとして使っていた。
 あのころの米国は、一時の「衰退論」をはね返し、黄金の90年代を築き上げていた。ドルが世界を飛び交い、地球の裏側にまで米軍が展開していた。世界の路地裏にある劇場では、若者がハリウッド映画を楽しんでいる。
 80年代の日本脅威論は見る影もなく、中国パワーはまだ霧の中である。米国興隆のカギを握るのは情報革命の新しい波であり、米外交誌は終戦直後の第1波に続く「アメリカの世紀」の第2波到来を宣言していたのだ。
 グリーンスパン議長はこのときの議会証言で、その情報革命を「1800年代の発電機の発明と並ぶ“100年に1度の事態”」と未来学者のようなことをいっていた。彼は「技術革新による生産性の向上、経済のグローバル化、さらに規制緩和によるコストダウン効果がある」と、3つの要素を挙げて褒めそやした。
 それが昨年の秋になると、この大不況の到来を「100年に1度の大津波」といった。あれからわずか10年である。上げたり下げたりめまぐるしい。それほど今回の大不況は深刻なのだと、エコノミストの後知恵はいうだろう。
 大エコノミストがしれっと悲観的なご託宣をすれば、続く小エコノミストの群像も右へ倣えだ。彼らが作法にのっとり「景気悪化」の大合唱をすれば、世界中がなえてしまうのは避けられない。不況時に財布のひもを締めろといえば、さらに悪くなるだろう。
 米国市場が頼りだから、あちらがこければみなこける。しかも、米国の衰退は良からぬ国の台頭を意味するからなお厄介なのだ。
 昔、町内には正義感あふれる好漢がいて、悪漢どもを投げ飛ばしたものだ。その好漢が何かで衰弱すると、また卑劣なやからが起き上がってくるのと同じである。
 米国を国際社会の「好漢」に例えると、ソ連を崩壊に導いて東欧を解放し、クウェートを侵攻したイラクを追い出した。だが、好漢がつまずくと、エゴ丸出しの強国が「米国の一極支配は終わった」と、露骨な行動に出る。
 ロシアは隣国ウクライナの態度が気に入らないと、天然ガスの供給を停止した。厳冬期を待っての恫喝(どうかつ)である。昨年夏のグルジアへの軍事侵攻を連想させる。
 中国も鬼の居ぬ間に攻撃性の高い空母を建造するつもりらしい。「空母はつくらず」はウソだったか。昨年6月の日中合意に反して東シナ海のガス田を新たに単独で開発している。日本の抗議には、「解釈の違い」でごり押しする。
 米国という好漢の衰退は困るが、この超大国を侮らない方がよい。「100年に1度」を10年で2度も経験したこの国の立ち直りは意外に早い。(東京特派員)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Ireland: Donald Trump Could Be Swallowed Up by an Epstein Conspiracy He Helped Create

Germany: Trump’s Tariffs: China Acts, Europe Reacts

Russia: The 3rd-Party Idea as a Growing Trend*

Germany: Trump Is Capable of Learning

Australia: Donald Trump Made MAGA a Promise on the Epstein Files. They Are Holding Him to It

Topics

Australia: Donald Trump Made MAGA a Promise on the Epstein Files. They Are Holding Him to It

Australia: What’s Behind Donald Trump’s Latest Crypto Adventure?

Ireland: Donald Trump Could Be Swallowed Up by an Epstein Conspiracy He Helped Create

China: Blind Faith in US ‘Security Commitments’ Is Short-Sighted

Thailand: Donald Trump Buys Time with Weapons for Kyiv

Sri Lanka: As Albanese Stands Tall, Let’s Stand by Her

Indonesia: Trump’s 19% Tariffs: How Should We Respond?

Turkey: Conflicting Messages to Syria: US Supports Integrity while Israel Attacks

Related Articles

India: Trump’s Tariffs Have Hit South Korea and Japan: India Has Been Wise in Charting a Cautious Path

Japan: Iran Ceasefire Agreement: The Danger of Peace by Force

Japan: Trump’s 100 Days: A Future with No Visible Change So Far

Japan: US Administration Losing Credibility 3 Months into Policy of Threats

Japan: US-Japan Defense Minister Summit: US-Japan Defense Chief Talks Strengthen Concerns about Single-Minded Focus on Strength