Mutual Dependence

Barack Obama has inherited an international scenario that is very distinct from those of his immediate predecessors. George H. W. Bush was the first U.S. president in a unipolar world, with the disappearance of the Soviet Union; Bill Clinton, his successor, and George W. Bush moved within the same arena, although the latter, in his desire to prolong the unipolar moment, ended up facilitating the emergence of a multipolar world, with diverse emerging powers. Obama will now have to deal with a power which, for the first time in two decades, intends to rival the United States.

The official visit of Hu Jintao, president of China, to the United States has served to confirm Washington’s acceptance that the ascension of China is inevitable. China is already the second largest economy of the world after having unseated Japan, and everything indicates that in 20 years it will finish surpassing the United States for the number one seat, at least in terms of gross domestic product.

The Asian giant is already a global actor whose help is necessary to resolve global problems, from the financial crisis to climate change. And, in this context, the visit of Hu Jintao to Washington has been a test of realism for both parties. Obama has recognized that the ascension of China is inevitable, and has affirmed that this is good for the United States and the world. The Chinese president has recognized that much remains to accomplish for China in matters of human rights, but not only has he accepted the criticisms of the United States, he has also signed distinct accords through which economic cooperation between the two powers will continue.

The realism demonstrated by both parties is due to the economic interdependence that exists between them. China has invested nearly a billion dollars in the public debt of the United States, which explains the latter’s realism. But China also needs the U.S. market for its products, which helps explain its realist stance.

There isn’t any lack of friction between the two giants. There are economic tensions, derived from the Chinese trade surpluses or the low value of the Chinese currency. There also exist political differences due to the rapid military modernization of China or the U.S. voices that request a containment policy towards China. But while the pragmatists of both parties set the agenda, mutual economic dependency will put cooperation ahead of the rivalry.