Obama and the Uncertain Outlook for the 2012 Election

As the clouds open over the American electoral campaign’s battle between Democrats and Republicans, it appears that that the economic situation will continue in a state of torpor with a debilitated and fluctuating stock and bond market.

Day after day, the American public is increasingly pessimistic due to the danger of a long-lasting, inevitable second recession. Economic growth, or anything like it, is nonexistent, the unemployment rate has reached its highest point in ages, U.S. foreign policy positions have descended into chaos, and reports of casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq increase daily. The trouble was particularly evident during the second quarter of the year when tension between Congress and the White House escalated, especially in regard to raising the public debt ceiling and reducing the federal budget deficit.

There is a loss and a weakening of trust between the American people and the current administration in the White House. In light of these images and weak performance, there comes the question of how this will feature in the 2012 election.

Observers well know that in all previous campaigns Democrats have focused on local economic conditions, while Republicans have focused on foreign policy and national security. However, we now see that the upcoming elections will take place with a current unemployment rate exceeding 10.1 percent, the highest since the days of Franklin Roosevelt.

Here we note that partisanship is clear, despite a last minute agreement to raise the federal debt ceiling. What will become of all other outstanding problems? Inflation is still on the rise, health care costs continue to increase rapidly, and the gap is growing in the debate over raising tax revenues.

President Obama worked through long negotiations, during which he and the speaker of the House of Representatives reached an important agreement, showcasing leaders’ strategic vision to transcend party lines. However, it seems that the Senate majority leader has no interest in helping the president look good; Harry Reid did not support President Obama in the negotiations that led to the agreement, making him look more like a victim than the hero he had dreamed, and he appears to have been merely appropriated.

Neither of these images helps the president in the polls or in the eyes of the American people. Nevertheless, Democrats still welcome him, and the fact is that Congress is even less popular than the president.

It is clear to observers that Obama suffers from lack of vision and the confidence of his supporters, even on issues that he was ready to fight for during the long negotiations that took place prior to the agreement. Raising the federal debt ceiling has revealed one of President Obama’s clear positions: Any agreement must balance both tax revenue and spending cuts. We see, however, that the Republican opposition rejects even this one request. President Obama has emerged victorious from the negotiations and the findings are more than formalities. On the other hand, Republicans have oversimplified the new spending cuts and avoidance of new taxes.

The White House leader and his aides are trying to change the debate’s subject and move on to something else, namely job creation.

This has led them to demand that Congress extend long-term unemployment payments, renew tax cuts on wages and bank financing for infrastructure. Republicans’ responses seem extreme to many voters, but, all told, they have a clear outlook and vision for the future. President Obama and his team must proceed carefully and remain resolute if they hope to maintain his position in the upcoming elections.