Will someone who began as a joke finish by bowling over the U.S. Republican Party camp a few months before the 2016 presidential election? Several times already, Donald Trump’s candidacy has been judged unlikely, particularly because the federal election commission requires him to be transparent about his fortune. When the real estate tycoon joined the race on June 16 – the twelfth candidate in a Republican race that has never been so wide open – his entrance to the campaign, announced at Trump Tower in New York, was ridiculed as the final demonstration of an overlarge ego.
On this occasion, Donald Trump’s words received little attention. He expressed contempt for traditional politicians, calling them the puppets of lobbyists and donors; he envisioned an extremely simplified world in which the United States could be on the losing end of globalization. This virulent and disjointed speech seemed like the prelude to a campaign that would be as tumultuous as it was brief.
The rise of popular support for the businessman at the beginning of July was thus compared to the brief bursts of support experienced by other outsiders in the past. His rivals believed that the controversies generously spread by Donald Trump (his questioning of Senator John McCain’s military career, his description of Mexican immigrants as traffickers and rapists) would soon finish him off.
Instead of falling into line, the businessman created new standards during the first organized Republican debate on Aug. 6. He refused to adhere to the rules (by implying that he would pursue nomination as an independent if he failed to garner the Republican nomination or if the polls were unfavorable), he refused to treat one of the central actors in the campaign – the media – as an untouchable arbiter (as demonstrated in his altercation with journalist Megyn Kelly), and he refused to consider his rivals as equals, mocking their supposed servility to those who finance their campaigns.
Transgressive Positioning
Not two weeks later, Donald Trump struck another blow. This time, he chose the sensitive issue of immigration, which in the past has caused fractures among Republicans. Pragmatists state the impossibility of sending back around 11 million illegal immigrants, while intransigents stubbornly refuse to accept the temporary regulations proposed by President Barack Obama, without going so far as to require waves of mass deportations. Accused by his opponents of lacking any stance on the issue, Mr. Trump replied by adopting a maximalist position against immigration, proposing the expulsion of millions of undocumented migrants and the construction of a wall along the entire southern border of the country. In doing so, he has stifled the most outspoken voices and given his rivals a difficult choice: Stand with him or appear soft on immigration.
The businessman’s resistance to predictions of his failure has led to further examinations of his popularity. Some have attributed it to his media expertise, honed by decades of self-promotion and an understanding of the codes of reality TV. Omnipresent for over two months, Donald Trump received the best scores for voter intentions in practically all of the ideological sectors of the Grand Old Party. This is paradoxical, because his transgressive position is currently his main driving force. It allows him to distinguish himself from conventional candidates (five senators and former senators and nine governors and former governors) and to attract those who are disappointed in the political system.
A Campaign Turned into a Show
The enormous success of the first Republican debate (with 24 million viewers, it set a cable channel record, excluding sporting events) reflects in part the interest instilled by Mr. Trump in this campaign-turned-show, of which he is the star. This force also has its weaknesses: Sympathy or empathy toward an iconoclastic style is no guarantee that a public situated on the periphery of politics will participate in the upcoming caucuses and primaries. Despite his assurances, the billionaire has not yet put in place a “voting machine” in the swing states, unlike his rivals. Furthermore, being divisive comes at a cost: A majority of Republican voters continue to think Mr. Trump is not a serious candidate for 2016.
The effects of his candidacy have already been considerable, however. The first effect concerns the Republican camp: By taking the hardest line on immigration, Mr. Trump risks alienating a Latino electorate that will be crucial for regaining the White House.
The second effect, while unexpected, is more fundamental. In stating that his wealth is an assurance of his political freedom, Mr. Trump involuntarily struck a heavy blow against the drift of American democracy that was initiated in 2010 by the Supreme Court with the abolition of campaign finance ceilings. This has not escaped one of the fiercest opponents of the decision in Citizens United v. Federal Elections Committee: Professor Lawrence Lessig. Although he is considering running for the Democratic nomination, he may be ready to support Mr. Trump if he becomes an independent.
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