TPP International Agreement: With the US in Disarray, There’s No Need To Rush

There’s no need to rush with the TPP, is there? That’s what I’d like to say, seeing the U.S. in such a state of disarray.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership continues on its path to enactment as it now formally turns to the domestic audience for approval.

In a special Diet session held in September, the Abe administration said they planned to put their utmost effort into approving and enacting bills related to the TPP, which continues to be deliberated over.

Considering how a new Congress will open up after the presidential elections in November, President Obama is, of course, aiming to ratify the TPP before he steps down next January. As such, Japan is trying to take the initiative and stay by the Obama administration’s side to support it.

In order for the TPP to be enacted, it must receive approval from Japan and the U.S., both of which are huge economic powers. By taking the lead and acting as if it’s already passed, Japan is also trying to apply pressure to the U.S. and prevent any possible backtracking on its enactment.

But the U.S.’s situation is completely unpredictable, and without regard to these expectations. The Democratic Party and the Republican Party candidates contesting over the presidential seat both oppose the TPP, with this sentiment only growing stronger.

Trump has insisted that the TPP will destroy the manufacturing industry and declared his intent to withdraw from it. Clinton from the Democratic Party has also said that the TPP will steal their sovereignty and has stressed that she’ll oppose it even if she becomes president.

Congress members who agree and also oppose the TPP have also been appearing one after another. On the other hand, the Senate and the House of Representatives are mostly made up of influential Republican Party members; if those who don’t oppose the TPP don’t look to reopen negotiations and revise the contents of the agreement, then Congress may remain unpersuaded.

I have to say that President Obama’s goal of ratification before he steps down is an incredibly difficult challenge.

To look into why the presidential candidates are against the TPP, it’s no doubt a domestic matter. The manufacturing industry is on a decline due to trade liberalization, leading to many unhappy workers who’ve lost their jobs—and who the candidates plot to gain the support of.

The TPP was designed to increase U.S. presence and influence not only as a security measure, but also in the economic affairs of the Asia-Pacific region, of which China stands at the forefront. Once a new president is elected, we can’t say they won’t turn their eyes outside and change their stance on the TPP.

But, despite being approved in a special Diet session, it’s possible the TPP may be held up by the U.S. Congress, or the new government may withdraw their consent, leading to a situation where we’d have to seek renegotiation. If that happens, the Abe administration might have the rug pulled out from under them.

In any case, there’s no need to rush for enactment. What we do need is to keep a close eye on where the U.S. will lean and, above that, face our citizens with honesty.

Despite the fact that it’s already been almost a year since the outline of the TPP was settled, it’s difficult to say whether the citizens have deepened their understanding on how it’ll impact their livelihood or society as a whole.

In particular, they don’t understand at all the anxiety and distrust swirling in the areas that are actually involved in production, given the unprecedented agricultural boom the TPP is predicted to cause. This was one of the reasons why the current party suffered such a crushing defeat in Tohoku in July’s House of Councilors election.

In order for citizens to understand why we need to erase that anxiety, the government needs only to educate them on the progress of the negotiations, as well as make an effort to disclose the maximum amount of information and give a clear explanation. Diet members in all parties have the ability to investigate, scrutinize and dispute over whether the TPP will really benefit the citizens.

Special Diet sessions need to be a place where the TPP is thoroughly discussed and not just agreed upon.